Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Air Canada | Aeroplan
Reload this Page >

Air Canada Reports 2020 Annual Results

Air Canada Reports 2020 Annual Results

Old Feb 12, 2021, 6:25 am
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,946
Air Canada Reports 2020 Annual Results

4th quarter and full year 2020 results published.

Total revenues of $5.833 billion in 2020 declined $13.298 billion or 70 per cent from 2019. The airline reported 2020 negative EBITDA(1) (excluding special items) or (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $2.043 billion compared to 2019 EBITDA of $3.636 billion. Air Canada reported an operating loss of $3.776 billion in 2020 compared to operating income of $1.650 billion in 2019. Unrestricted liquidity amounted to $8.013 billion at December 31, 2020.

Air Canada Reports 2020 Annual Results - Feb 12, 2021 (mediaroom.com)
mileageking is offline  
Old Feb 12, 2021, 7:09 am
  #2  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 231
$8 billion in liquidity says no way they get a bailout.
hoipolloi likes this.
mxqisit is offline  
Old Feb 12, 2021, 7:18 am
  #3  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Vancouver
Programs: AC SE100K 1MM, FB Platinum, Bonvoy Platinum Elite, IHG Gold Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 1,602
Originally Posted by mxqisit
$8 billion in liquidity says no way they get a bailout.
I suspect there is a difference between government assistance and what would be considered a bailout. On the call this am they indicated that they have seen 17% return on their pension investments and do have reasonable financial flexibility. They also indicated that negotiations over the last few weeks with government have been positive and the pace of the discussions has picked up. Calin indicated that refunds are part of the discussion. If the government comes forward with industry specific assistance, they will surely take advantage of this, as long as it has a positive impact on AC.
EdmFlyBoi is offline  
Old Feb 12, 2021, 7:34 am
  #4  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,946
They mentioned if funding was available, it may be good to align after some modifications to US cares act, i.e. payroll support and loan period of up-to 5 years.
mileageking is offline  
Old Feb 12, 2021, 8:54 am
  #5  
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: ZRH
Programs: AC SE 100K
Posts: 924
Originally Posted by mxqisit
$8 billion in liquidity says no way they get a bailout.
I agree - they have a long long way to hang on. So if the government is determined to push to nationalize them - it is a long way off. Also - look at the cargo revenue - especially some regions. Transatlantic had 50% more cargo rev than PAX rev (surprised they got $1m per day transatlantic in Q4 - that's like 2,000 passengers/day - which just feels really high - I suppose they are likely down to mid hundreds at most).

Also - the liquidity is very clear and they could go 18 months at current burn rate. Would like to go hear the replay of the call as I'm curious what questions were asked as to how the future will develop.

Last edited by tcook052; Feb 12, 2021 at 9:55 am Reason: Off topic political commentary
zrh2yvr is offline  
Old Feb 12, 2021, 8:59 am
  #6  
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Toronto, ON
Programs: AC 75K
Posts: 6,358
Originally Posted by zrh2yvr
Also - the liquidity is very clear and they could go 18 months at current burn rate. Would like to go hear the replay of the call as I'm curious what questions were asked as to how the future will develop.
Semantics perhaps, but it's more like 12 months. AC minimum cash levels for sustained operations is 2.4 Billion. But even then, they have enough unencumbered assets to generate further liquidity if needed.
ChrisA330 is offline  
Old Feb 12, 2021, 9:33 am
  #7  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,946
Simple theory, hold passenger refunds hostage and leverage discussion to maximize government funds without tapping into own. Government equity injection theory wouldn't work here as it does for EY, EK, QR or SQ. Maybe give GoC a seat at the board.
mileageking is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 8:41 pm
  #8  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: YYT
Programs: M-Bonvoy Platinum Elite, Aeroplan 50K, DragonPass, AMEX MR, NEXUS
Posts: 1,715
Originally Posted by mileageking
Simple theory, hold passenger refunds hostage and leverage discussion to maximize government funds without tapping into own. Government equity injection theory wouldn't work here as it does for EY, EK, QR or SQ. Maybe give GoC a seat at the board.
Do we really think AC is going to give up the refunds? Even if the government demands this as a condition of the bailout, I don't see AC refunding passengers.
codfather is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 8:58 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: YOW
Programs: AC SE, FOTSG Platinum
Posts: 5,725
Originally Posted by codfather
Do we really think AC is going to give up the refunds? Even if the government demands this as a condition of the bailout, I don't see AC refunding passengers.
You really think they'd refuse a bailout that was contingent on refunds?
YOWgary is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 8:59 pm
  #10  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: YYT
Programs: M-Bonvoy Platinum Elite, Aeroplan 50K, DragonPass, AMEX MR, NEXUS
Posts: 1,715
Originally Posted by YOWgary
You really think they'd refuse a bailout that was contingent on refunds?
Well, they have refused it thus far, no? If they were willing to refund the tickets the bailout would already be here.
codfather is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 9:05 pm
  #11  
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC SE, AA PlatPro, Hyatt Globalist, Bonvoy Plat & LT Gold, Hilton Gold, National EE
Posts: 877
Originally Posted by codfather
Well, they have refused it thus far, no? If they were willing to refund the tickets the bailout would already be here.
Advance ticket sales actually went down from 2,939M in 2019 to 2,314M in 2020.

Same with the Aeroplan liabilities. They got quite a bit off their books from 1,162M to 572M in 2020. Guess "travel at home" had something to do with that
MillennialMiles is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 10:21 pm
  #12  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,946
Originally Posted by codfather
Do we really think AC is going to give up the refunds? Even if the government demands this as a condition of the bailout, I don't see AC refunding passengers.
I believe AC has already refunded approximately $1.2B of refundable fares. Pretty confident they will issue refunds on non-refundable fares if terms of the support package are adequate and reasonable. I think talks have been going on since Nov 6th. What's missing is the amount of refunds required on non-refundable fares. I don't believe AC has made this public.

Earlier this month, Sunwing Airlines and Vacations received combined $375M from the government. One of the conditions was to maintain a separate account to hold money from customers whose trips were cancelled due to the pandemic, until the government and airline industry established a policy on refunds and credits of prepaid amounts.
mileageking is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 10:42 pm
  #13  
Moderator, Air Canada; FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: YYC
Programs: AC SE MM, FB Plat, WS Plat, BA Silver, DL GM, Marriott Plat, Hilton Gold, Accor Silver
Posts: 16,736
Please note that there is a specific thread to discuss a potential bail-out.

AC rules out 'colossal failure' of government stake for aid; bailout debate thread

Discussion of the putative bail-out should continue there; this thread is for discussion of the Q4 2020 results.

Adam Smith
AC Forum Co-Moderator
mileageking likes this.
Adam Smith is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2021, 11:00 pm
  #14  
Moderator, Air Canada; FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: YYC
Programs: AC SE MM, FB Plat, WS Plat, BA Silver, DL GM, Marriott Plat, Hilton Gold, Accor Silver
Posts: 16,736
Originally Posted by zrh2yvr
Also - the liquidity is very clear and they could go 18 months at current burn rate. Would like to go hear the replay of the call as I'm curious what questions were asked as to how the future will develop.
Originally Posted by ChrisA330
Semantics perhaps, but it's more like 12 months. AC minimum cash levels for sustained operations is 2.4 Billion. But even then, they have enough unencumbered assets to generate further liquidity if needed.
They're working on cutting the burn rate further with the recent job cuts and station closures, which would extend the runway. $2.4 billion seems awfully high to me too. They should be good until well in to 2022 at this rate, I would think.

Originally Posted by MillennialMiles
Advance ticket sales actually went down from 2,939M in 2019 to 2,314M in 2020.
That's not just due to refunds. In large part that's due to lower bookings. A bunch of the tickets that made up the $2.9 billion have been flown, but a lot fewer new tickets have been booked to replace them.

Same with the Aeroplan liabilities. They got quite a bit off their books from 1,162M to 572M in 2020. Guess "travel at home" had something to do with that
That's incorrect.
  1. Firstly, you're confusing "Aeroplan and other deferred revenue" with purely Aeroplan.
  2. You're only looking at the short-term portion (the portion of the liability that's expected to come due within the next 12 months). Aeroplan liabilities are spread across both short- and long-term. Total Aeroplan liabilities increased by over $400MM last year, from $2,825MM to $3,256MM.
Adam Smith is offline  
Old Feb 15, 2021, 6:05 am
  #15  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada
Programs: UA*1K MM
Posts: 23,293
Originally Posted by mileageking
Pretty confident they will issue refunds on non-refundable fares if terms of the support package are adequate and reasonable. I think talks have been going on since Nov 6th. What's missing is the amount of refunds required on non-refundable fares.
Even if, question is how.

How do you refund thousands of PNRs that have already been converted into gift cards? Aeroplan miles?

Even if thats possible, it would take AC years to manually consolidate and catch up.

I think it's safe to assume that the money already stolen from people by AC will never be recovered
rankourabu is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.