canadiancow

I did a YYZ-LAX search last night to show my father why joining my family pool might be worthwhile to him. In stark contrast to when I did a week of YYZ-YVR searches, YYZ-LAX on the date my dad actually wanted was cheap.

Looking only at the 5 non-stops on that date:

Y (published 12.5k - 17.5k)
Not logged in: 11.9k for 4/5, 12.5k for 1/5
SM with a black card: 8k for 4/5, 9.5k for 1/5

PY (published 20k - 35k)
Not logged in: 19.4k for 2/2
SM with a black card: 15.1k for 2/2

J (published 25k - 60k)
Not logged in: 24k for 2/5, 24.4k for 1/5, 48.1k for 1/5, 73.6k for 1/5
SM with a black card: 18.6k for 2/5, 19.7k for 1/5, 34.2k for 1/5, 58.6k for 1/5

Needless to say, he joined my pool.

However, in Y, not logged in, every flight was below or at the (literal) bottom of the published range.
Same in PY.
J was also below for 3/5 fights. 1/5 was above the top end.

Logged in as me, nothing was above the top end. Even the 34.2k was reasonable for J if I really wanted that specific flight.

But if my dad's going to be able to fly transcon to CA for 8k in Y, I think he's going to be very happy.

Even 18.6k in J may have me rethinking my "don't redeem in North America" policy, though I now have a dozen FP credits to use.

It's also worth noting that I had a fairly consistent 20-30% discount on all flights.

I'm not complaining about this, but it's still a case where only 2 of 15 flights were within the published range (1 above, 12 below). So the ranges are ... odd.

yyztozag

Family pool, highest status: 50K VIP, 3 priority rewards available

2 pax
YYZ-YVR, AC103 8:00, Premium Economy Flexible, 23.6K points
YVR-YYZ, AC118 14:10, Economy Latitude, 21.1K points
Used two priority rewards here and 6 eUps per pax to confirm a J seat on both segments.

2 pax
YYZ-YVR, AC103, 8:00, Economy Latitude, 21.1K points
YVR-YYZ, AC118, 14:10, Business Lowest, 21.6K points
Used 4 eUps per pax to confirm a J seat on the outbound.

All in all, around 130K points plus $280 for a 4 pax trip to YVR with confirmed J seats. This new system is excellent.

hoipolloi

Question:
Does Aeroplan's award pricing shoot up and follow revenue rate for last minute bookings even if there's X/I saver award availability for Star Alliance partners?


Example:
YUL-YHZ flights AC7558 and AC7560 departing tomorrow November 30th are currently priced at $549 per seat in Economy Standard.

Both flights have X saver award availability bookable via United for 15K miles per seat

Air Canada prices Economy Standard Award seats on those flights currently at 16K Aeroplan points per seat, an increase of about 5K to 8K points from pricing seen for +21 day advance booking rates when the cash rates at their "normal" level.

Answer/Conclusion:
The award rates increase slightly/moderately but remain low compared to the cash rate in cases when saver X/I award availability is available.

I'll keep a stash of miles with LifeMiles, United, and/or AsiaMiles to use for last minute domestic redemptions on Air Canada when saver award space is available, in case Aeroplan's award pricing doesn't follow the example shown above.


N.B: AsiaMiles can only be used to redeem on certain AC domestic routes from/to YVR and YYZ.

MaxVO

Great subject to consider! Thanks for bringing this up and the data point.
However, there should be NO conclusion when only 1 DP is available.

YOWgary

Just closing the loop on this one: I spoke with Mark Nasr today, and asked him why we're still seeing YVR-SYD for >500,000 points in April, when it's so incredibly unlikely that those flights will ever operate given the statements from the Australian government.

His answer was that the new Aeroplan program committed to making every single AC seat that's available for retail sale, available for points redemption, period. Those flights are currently for sale as cash fares, so they're available as points fares.

The rest of this is my opinion, not coming from him - but it's worth noting that YVR-SYD cash fares in April are also thousands of dollars higher than the pre-COVID pricing they're at for late October / early November when there's reasonable hope that they'll be operating again.

I couldn't begin to suggest whether they've priced the current flights high to discourage bookings that will almost certainly be unusable, or whether they've simply not bothered to fix those data points because it's a moot point, but the outcome is really the same either way.

Point is, it's not an oversight, and there appears to be no intent on AC's part that we'll see 500K business prices to Australia once things return to normal. Obviously, if a flight just before Christmas is J1 O0 Y0, that might get pretty expensive, but you get where I'm going with this.

EagleBoss

Premium Economy YOW-YVR with layover in YYZ on December 14th with a CC and no status.

Cost to book at 12:35am ET: 17,900 + $44.21
Cost to book at 10:02am ET: 24,100 + $44.21
Cost to book at 9:43pm ET: 17,900 + $44.21

AC spiked the pricing when I went to book in the morning, but it went down at night, allowing me to cancel and rebook with less points. Dynamic indeed.

rankourabu

Ha, this is awesome. Had a one-way from Middle East to YYZ booked for 70k. Added YYZ-YOW, now its 66.3k
Its even better when the hidden city segment is in Y.

YOWgary

This one might be a new record. That's for a 75K traveller with a premium card.

Worth noting that that 6 AM departure is also nearly twice as expensive as a cash fare, so ...at least it's consistent?

This isn't me .....ing, under the old program there just wouldn't have been any J space showing up at all. It's just interesting to learn about that pricing algorithm.

TheCanuckian

I have a question about all this.

I am SE and have the Amex Aeroplan Reserve card.

I have been searching for 2 J flights from YYZ to HNL and back. After searching I saw 28k $114 for the outbound flights and 30.2k +$9 for the return flights. Seemed like good value. This was not with Priority Rewards.

After I select those flights, I come to the Fare Review page, I would expect to see 116,400 points and $246 in fees. Instead I see this:


I was under the understanding that the prices I was seeing as I selected flights was the final pricing, not that it would be adjusted after selecting the flights. Is that not the case? Why would the points leap and the fees fall? I called Aeroplan and the agent there said this is just the way the system works now.

TheCanuckian

For what it's worth, I broke it down into two one-way flights and the pricing was correct. That negates the COVID insurance, but other than that shouldn't matter. But it's something to keep an eye on, I think…

tomvancouver

I sure hope this is a glitch rather than something for real. Surely what you are quoted before the last page is what you should be charged.
I look forward to others' experiences

YBang

Booked in J Lowest on AC

YEG - PVG round trip for 2 late Aug

70.9K per leg total was 285,900 points + $150.70 in fees. I feel Asia redemptions are definitely better than before.

TheCanuckian

Researching farther, it looks to me like the pricing can get messed up on multi-city bookings.

wrldtrav2013

Trying to get a flight to YVR from YYZ on Jan 14 in J, no status, no card. Not sure what the loading is on these flights but i’ll keep checking until departure. Booked on another flight for now just to have something. Is it wishful thinking that the redemption prices will decrease?

IluvSQ

You are much more optimistic than I am. I NEED to go to China on business, and I do not expect to get in before Jan 2022 at the earliest.