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When FFs Dream - What Could AC Travel Look Like Post-Pandemic?

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When FFs Dream - What Could AC Travel Look Like Post-Pandemic?

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Old Apr 1, 2020, 6:16 pm
  #31  
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Originally Posted by karachi
I suspect MLL's will be limited to elite and J pax only if social isolation is still the norm.
Are that many people really entering through other means? I don't have the stats, but my rouge estimate from spending too much time at lounge desks would be 70+% entering with status.
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Old Apr 1, 2020, 6:33 pm
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by canadiancow
Are that many people really entering through other means? I don't have the stats, but my rouge estimate from spending too much time at lounge desks would be 70+% entering with status.
A lot of FOTSGs with CC perks. They are why the Cafe (and SSLs to a lesser extent) exist, no?
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Old Apr 1, 2020, 7:26 pm
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by karachi
...
I suspect MLL's will be limited to elite and J pax only if social isolation is still the norm. I don't think its practical to do this on planes - as mentioned earlier, it will make flying very expensive if capacity is 50-60%.
AC will be back to normal (as of Nov 2019) in probably 18-24 months. we have short memories.
I don't see how AC could limit access. They don't do priority pass so it is basically credit cards where MLL is a named benifit. There is an existing contact between the airline and bank and between the bank and card holder.
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Old Apr 1, 2020, 7:42 pm
  #34  
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Originally Posted by RangerNS
A lot of FOTSGs with CC perks. They are why the Cafe (and SSLs to a lesser extent) exist, no?
Cafe excludes E35K and the MLL passes given out to all Altitude members. And it offers a very different environment, clearly built on "grab and go". No booze, no business centre, no conference rooms... It's not meant to be "better", it's meant to be different, albeit maybe at a higher cost accounted for each entry. But I honestly can't see myself using the Cafe after 11am.

The SS is only missing things that couldn't fit (in YYZ, showers and a business centre). In YVR, that's even less of an issue because you have easier access to the MLL. SS is a strict improvement in terms of crowding, food, and beverage. The cafe is not better than the MLL, it's just a different offering.

I've unfortunately had to sit at MLL desks for far too long (agent incompetence - not always MLL agent, but some agent), and I just don't believe that the CC perk is significant. Maybe on December 23, but certainly not the rest of the year.

And like Fiordland said, it's an advertised benefit that's been paid for. As is everything else. You can limit entry due to capacity issues, but then what about us Altitude members who have "paid" for MLL passes if we're never able to use them?
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Old Apr 1, 2020, 10:16 pm
  #35  
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Last edited by skybluesea; Dec 21, 2020 at 1:33 pm
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Old Apr 2, 2020, 12:55 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by skybluesea
Agree with most of your perspectives, although jet fuel costs are meaningful. Platt futures show slow climb to 2023, so no particular rush to remove older aircraft, save those that are timed for major maintenance.

https://www.iata.org/en/publications.../fuel-monitor/
I don't follow. Yes, low jet fuel prices would normally allow older gas guzzlers to keep flying, but if demand is down significantly, the price of jet fuel isn't all that important. My point is: if you have to park something because demand is down so much, why pay to park and maintain an old 763 (or 744, or a not-so-old but very expensive A380) if it has very little flying left, when you could cut your costs by just sending it to the scrap heap? That's fundamentally different from parking a 345 when demand is decent but it's just too expensive to fly because fuel prices have gone up.
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Last edited by Adam Smith; Apr 4, 2020 at 10:22 am
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Old Apr 2, 2020, 8:34 am
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by Fiordland
I don't see how AC could limit access. They don't do priority pass so it is basically credit cards where MLL is a named benifit. There is an existing contact between the airline and bank and between the bank and card holder.
They could be stricter with their guest policies. Perhaps only 1 max guest?
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Old Apr 2, 2020, 2:01 pm
  #38  
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Last edited by skybluesea; Dec 21, 2020 at 1:32 pm
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Old Apr 2, 2020, 3:20 pm
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by Fiordland
I don't see how AC could limit access. They don't do priority pass so it is basically credit cards where MLL is a named benifit. There is an existing contact between the airline and bank and between the bank and card holder.
Given the extraordinary circumstances, they can change that. The other option will be to reduce capacity and put the seats 2 meters from each other. no buffet.

I suspect this may also lead to a further reduction in paper boarding pass usage, and the use of app instead of lounge agents handling physical altitude cards.
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Old Apr 2, 2020, 5:39 pm
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by karachi
Given the extraordinary circumstances, they can change that. The other option will be to reduce capacity and put the seats 2 meters from each other. no buffet.

I suspect this may also lead to a further reduction in paper boarding pass usage, and the use of app instead of lounge agents handling physical altitude cards.
Trying to get out of the contract with credit card companies would obviously involve AC giving the credit card companies a refund and the credit cad companies giving their card holders a refund. Given how the lounges will likely be fairly lightly used for the next few months not certain their much point to that.

Some of the Delta lounges I go to frequently have the scanner sitting on the table and you scan your phone or your boarding pass instead of handing anything to the attendant at the lounge front desk. AC could do the same..
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Old Apr 2, 2020, 8:09 pm
  #41  
 
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Some possible new AC routes?

just texted to me:

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Old Apr 3, 2020, 4:29 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by RCyyz
Selling only 50% of plane seats seems a reasonable way to ensure physical distancing in a very enclosed space. But airlines won't do this voluntarily. So I would anticipate we could see HD+ configs on many AC planes so that when they sell only 50% of the seats, they're still selling a large number of seats per segment. It could even mean a return of 2-2-2 config on international J so that they can stagger pax in 1A, 1D and 1G then in 2C, 2F etc.
What? First of all, that would be a waste of money, and second of all, you have as much distance between people in a pod as you do in your "staggered" 2-2-2 configuration. Also, people keep forgetting that this virus will eventually be beaten. Even the most terrified doctors agree with that. They won't rush to reconfigure their planes for a few months. Then when social distancing is no longer needed, people will have zero privacy on four to five figure tickets. I don't think anyone wants that. I for one would just fly PE if they did that (and for obvious reasons, they won't).
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Old Apr 3, 2020, 4:41 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by expert7700
I dream that AC MLL will have food on request. At all hours of their operation

In a perfect world, ​​​​​​from a little window like ANA. Fresher, somewhat more sanitary than the old buffet/stampede style. Or AC could model after the little vending machine from the ramen shops in Japan: put your voucher or scan an AC QR code, pick a random illegible button, and out come your pickles.

I also dream that Skytrax will go bankrupt and the new rating agency will rate cleaning and sanitizing efforts of each airline. CBC could just buy reporters tickets and arm them with black lights.
That would be pretty cool. Not the vending machine, but the window. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Signature Suite go full a-la-carte (although I hope not, a few bites from the buffet come in handy when waiting for your meal).

I would be thrilled to see Skytrax go bankrupt. They're the most obscene organization in the whole aviation industry. Without going off-topic, I fail to understand how LH (5*) is a better quality airline than Etihad, SWISS or Air NZ (4*). There. Now, back to topic, if there was a better quality rating agency, maybe AC would fix some of their flaws (OTP, etc).
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Old Apr 3, 2020, 8:41 am
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by Adam Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer View Post
I expect that for the next 24 months or more;
- Up to 50% reduction of business travel customers, resulting in additional pressure for fare increases and scaling back of premium services.Lounge closings or restriction of access, elimination of many FF perks, gutting of Aeroplan/Altitude FF program with devaluation of current miles.


That really doesn't make sense. If demand is going to be hit as hard as you think it is, the industry will be in a position of significant overcapacity. Overcapacity tends to lead to lower fares. Times of significant overcapacity have also generally been good for FFs, as the airlines work to put butts in seats. The industry went in to this crisis in a much better position than it was in when 9/11 or the Great Recession hit - much fewer players, generally profitable, capacity discipline, etc - but those are fairly basic economic responses.

As for mileage devaluation, that's happening constantly. If anything, in an era of overcapacity, we might see devaluation slow and availability improve somewhat.

Not that I expect it to get back to the golden age of the 2000s where mileage runs for mileage alone could be profitable, but overall, this could be a good time for FFs.

The lower level of competition that we have in Canada will likely make it less favourable an environment than the US, but AC does still have to compete with WS, the US3 on TB routes, and international airlines on many long-haul routes.

Where the biggest negative impact would likely be felt is on anything with marginal profitability and on older aircraft. So will AC bother to keep flying to TPE, given it usually seems to be pretty cheap and BR and CI are probably both more committed to that market than AC? And, rather than replacing the rouge 763s as they reach the end of their lives, perhaps AC will simply send them to the scrap heap. It may also mean that leases on middle-aged planes (~10-20 years old) that AC had previously intended to renew would not be renewed, just so AC can get them off the books. Although the lessors will be facing pressure to keep metal in the air, so they may be offering some very attractive rates soon.
AC already has a complex fare structure, with five different brands for economy. What more do you think they can unbunble? Yes, one could strip priority seat selection from Latitude, or the free beverage from Comfort, but the more of those benefits you strip away, the less reason there is to have a separate fare brand. Or are you saying they should simplify and eliminate 1-2 or the brands?
.
If pricing was as logical and as compliant with the mathematical models we assume, then yes, I understand your criticism. However, my position takes into account the emotional dynamic and the expected epidemic waves that will follow. I am using the polio epidemics that plagued us up until the 1950's as a guide on what to expect. The pricing model takes into account that there will be a core group of people who need/want to travel. We see some of them on the forum. Yes, flight loads will be decreased and the airlines will respond with reduced frequencies. That core group of "must fly" customers will be willing to pay more.
On paper there will be over capacity, but once the airlines have laid off employees, they will seek to shed ongoing labour costs. AC can easily shrink its capacity with the retirement of some of its old fleet forced to stay in service because of the Max fiasco. The airlines will act in unison on their fare increases.

Yes, the pundits are predicting introductory low fares to regain flyers, but I don't see it happening, and if it does, it won't be sustained or in significant discount value.
My argument is that the airlines will contract, but they will always have a core group who will accept higher airfares. The airline can offer affordable airfares on some sun destinations if there is competition.

In respect to the fare classes and the options, as lucrative as the extra fees are, especially their tax treatment, those fees have been the lightening rod for complaints. I expect that there will be pressure to cut those fees. If airlines are being forced to bypass the additional seat selection fares to accommodate families, and there additional baggage fees are causing more grief than profit, we will see airfares simplified with more emphasis made on more inclusive options. The airlines will still get their fees, but they will be simplified and perhaps even increased.

In respect to TPE, I hold a very different view than you because I see it becoming a regional hub replacing mainland China. BR offers a significantly better quality experience than the mainland AC partners and could easily service the region. Perfect for connections to SE Asia. Taiwan is a major center of medical supply manufacturing and because of its strong technology and manufacturing base, I expect more investment in Taiwan vs. China. Taiwan has been the only country to really manage the pandemic and to control its infections, so it will be recognized as the Asian "safe" place to do business with, to transit and to visit. If AC can maintain its Hubs in Hong Kong and Japan, Taiwan is the ideal regional sub hub. Best of all, Taiwan would welcome Air Canada and would roll out the red carpet.
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Old Apr 3, 2020, 9:21 am
  #45  
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Last edited by skybluesea; Dec 21, 2020 at 1:32 pm
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