When FFs Dream - What Could AC Travel Look Like Post-Pandemic?
#31
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Are that many people really entering through other means? I don't have the stats, but my rouge estimate from spending too much time at lounge desks would be 70+% entering with status.
#32
Join Date: Jan 2017
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A lot of FOTSGs with CC perks. They are why the Cafe (and SSLs to a lesser extent) exist, no?
#33
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Vancouver
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I suspect MLL's will be limited to elite and J pax only if social isolation is still the norm. I don't think its practical to do this on planes - as mentioned earlier, it will make flying very expensive if capacity is 50-60%.
AC will be back to normal (as of Nov 2019) in probably 18-24 months. we have short memories.
I suspect MLL's will be limited to elite and J pax only if social isolation is still the norm. I don't think its practical to do this on planes - as mentioned earlier, it will make flying very expensive if capacity is 50-60%.
AC will be back to normal (as of Nov 2019) in probably 18-24 months. we have short memories.
#34
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The SS is only missing things that couldn't fit (in YYZ, showers and a business centre). In YVR, that's even less of an issue because you have easier access to the MLL. SS is a strict improvement in terms of crowding, food, and beverage. The cafe is not better than the MLL, it's just a different offering.
I've unfortunately had to sit at MLL desks for far too long (agent incompetence - not always MLL agent, but some agent), and I just don't believe that the CC perk is significant. Maybe on December 23, but certainly not the rest of the year.
And like Fiordland said, it's an advertised benefit that's been paid for. As is everything else. You can limit entry due to capacity issues, but then what about us Altitude members who have "paid" for MLL passes if we're never able to use them?
#36
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Agree with most of your perspectives, although jet fuel costs are meaningful. Platt futures show slow climb to 2023, so no particular rush to remove older aircraft, save those that are timed for major maintenance.
https://www.iata.org/en/publications.../fuel-monitor/
https://www.iata.org/en/publications.../fuel-monitor/
Last edited by Adam Smith; Apr 4, 2020 at 10:22 am
#37
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: YVR
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Posts: 31
They could be stricter with their guest policies. Perhaps only 1 max guest?
#39
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I suspect this may also lead to a further reduction in paper boarding pass usage, and the use of app instead of lounge agents handling physical altitude cards.
#40
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Vancouver
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Given the extraordinary circumstances, they can change that. The other option will be to reduce capacity and put the seats 2 meters from each other. no buffet.
I suspect this may also lead to a further reduction in paper boarding pass usage, and the use of app instead of lounge agents handling physical altitude cards.
I suspect this may also lead to a further reduction in paper boarding pass usage, and the use of app instead of lounge agents handling physical altitude cards.
Some of the Delta lounges I go to frequently have the scanner sitting on the table and you scan your phone or your boarding pass instead of handing anything to the attendant at the lounge front desk. AC could do the same..
#42
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: YYZ
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Selling only 50% of plane seats seems a reasonable way to ensure physical distancing in a very enclosed space. But airlines won't do this voluntarily. So I would anticipate we could see HD+ configs on many AC planes so that when they sell only 50% of the seats, they're still selling a large number of seats per segment. It could even mean a return of 2-2-2 config on international J so that they can stagger pax in 1A, 1D and 1G then in 2C, 2F etc.
#43
Join Date: Aug 2019
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I dream that AC MLL will have food on request. At all hours of their operation
In a perfect world, from a little window like ANA. Fresher, somewhat more sanitary than the old buffet/stampede style. Or AC could model after the little vending machine from the ramen shops in Japan: put your voucher or scan an AC QR code, pick a random illegible button, and out come your pickles.
I also dream that Skytrax will go bankrupt and the new rating agency will rate cleaning and sanitizing efforts of each airline. CBC could just buy reporters tickets and arm them with black lights.
In a perfect world, from a little window like ANA. Fresher, somewhat more sanitary than the old buffet/stampede style. Or AC could model after the little vending machine from the ramen shops in Japan: put your voucher or scan an AC QR code, pick a random illegible button, and out come your pickles.
I also dream that Skytrax will go bankrupt and the new rating agency will rate cleaning and sanitizing efforts of each airline. CBC could just buy reporters tickets and arm them with black lights.
I would be thrilled to see Skytrax go bankrupt. They're the most obscene organization in the whole aviation industry. Without going off-topic, I fail to understand how LH (5*) is a better quality airline than Etihad, SWISS or Air NZ (4*). There. Now, back to topic, if there was a better quality rating agency, maybe AC would fix some of their flaws (OTP, etc).
#44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Transpacificflyer View Post
I expect that for the next 24 months or more;
- Up to 50% reduction of business travel customers, resulting in additional pressure for fare increases and scaling back of premium services.Lounge closings or restriction of access, elimination of many FF perks, gutting of Aeroplan/Altitude FF program with devaluation of current miles.
That really doesn't make sense. If demand is going to be hit as hard as you think it is, the industry will be in a position of significant overcapacity. Overcapacity tends to lead to lower fares. Times of significant overcapacity have also generally been good for FFs, as the airlines work to put butts in seats. The industry went in to this crisis in a much better position than it was in when 9/11 or the Great Recession hit - much fewer players, generally profitable, capacity discipline, etc - but those are fairly basic economic responses.
As for mileage devaluation, that's happening constantly. If anything, in an era of overcapacity, we might see devaluation slow and availability improve somewhat.
Not that I expect it to get back to the golden age of the 2000s where mileage runs for mileage alone could be profitable, but overall, this could be a good time for FFs.
The lower level of competition that we have in Canada will likely make it less favourable an environment than the US, but AC does still have to compete with WS, the US3 on TB routes, and international airlines on many long-haul routes.
Where the biggest negative impact would likely be felt is on anything with marginal profitability and on older aircraft. So will AC bother to keep flying to TPE, given it usually seems to be pretty cheap and BR and CI are probably both more committed to that market than AC? And, rather than replacing the rouge 763s as they reach the end of their lives, perhaps AC will simply send them to the scrap heap. It may also mean that leases on middle-aged planes (~10-20 years old) that AC had previously intended to renew would not be renewed, just so AC can get them off the books. Although the lessors will be facing pressure to keep metal in the air, so they may be offering some very attractive rates soon.
AC already has a complex fare structure, with five different brands for economy. What more do you think they can unbunble? Yes, one could strip priority seat selection from Latitude, or the free beverage from Comfort, but the more of those benefits you strip away, the less reason there is to have a separate fare brand. Or are you saying they should simplify and eliminate 1-2 or the brands?
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On paper there will be over capacity, but once the airlines have laid off employees, they will seek to shed ongoing labour costs. AC can easily shrink its capacity with the retirement of some of its old fleet forced to stay in service because of the Max fiasco. The airlines will act in unison on their fare increases.
Yes, the pundits are predicting introductory low fares to regain flyers, but I don't see it happening, and if it does, it won't be sustained or in significant discount value.
My argument is that the airlines will contract, but they will always have a core group who will accept higher airfares. The airline can offer affordable airfares on some sun destinations if there is competition.
In respect to the fare classes and the options, as lucrative as the extra fees are, especially their tax treatment, those fees have been the lightening rod for complaints. I expect that there will be pressure to cut those fees. If airlines are being forced to bypass the additional seat selection fares to accommodate families, and there additional baggage fees are causing more grief than profit, we will see airfares simplified with more emphasis made on more inclusive options. The airlines will still get their fees, but they will be simplified and perhaps even increased.
In respect to TPE, I hold a very different view than you because I see it becoming a regional hub replacing mainland China. BR offers a significantly better quality experience than the mainland AC partners and could easily service the region. Perfect for connections to SE Asia. Taiwan is a major center of medical supply manufacturing and because of its strong technology and manufacturing base, I expect more investment in Taiwan vs. China. Taiwan has been the only country to really manage the pandemic and to control its infections, so it will be recognized as the Asian "safe" place to do business with, to transit and to visit. If AC can maintain its Hubs in Hong Kong and Japan, Taiwan is the ideal regional sub hub. Best of all, Taiwan would welcome Air Canada and would roll out the red carpet.