AC Cargo-Only Flights (2020 onwards)
Now that Coronavirus seems to have run its course in China (at least for the time being), I'm wondering if it might be profitable for AC to fly some of its 77W or 77L to and from China as pure cargo haulers. Obviously that would be belly only, so not sure if the economics make sense but there is an awful lot of cargo capacity from Asia that got pulled when all those flights were cancelled. Can't help but think air cargo rates have skyrocketed.
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Originally Posted by The Lev
(Post 32225078)
Can't help but think air cargo rates have skyrocketed.
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Originally Posted by Jagboi
(Post 32225101)
I've read on other forums that cargo prices have tripled in the last 2 weeks, so there may be an economic case to run as cargo only. In that regard I read the 747-400 is the champion because of it's great carrying capacity, a passenger version can be run profitably with cargo only, no passengers on board.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_load_device |
I am in a global supply chain role and my teams source globally for distribution around the world. I can confirm the sky-rocketing of prices, but ex-Europe is much worse than ex-China. As of today, air freight out of Europe is up 8X into certain US markets that have seen a capacity reduction in the area of 80%. Typical to pay ~ 3 EUR/kg, today quotes are ~26 EUR/kg. The average over the past week out of China is 2-3X standard rates.
On top of this backlogs are running 7-10 days out of most markets. I don't know the economics for the airlines but I can say definitively that the business would be there for them, particularly for markets like Chicago, Houston, and LA. |
Originally Posted by WaytoomuchEurope
(Post 32225137)
I am in a global supply chain role and my teams source globally for distribution around the world. I can confirm the sky-rocketing of prices, but ex-Europe is much worse than ex-China. As of today, air freight out of Europe is up 8X into certain US markets that have seen a capacity reduction in the area of 80%. Typical to pay ~ 3 EUR/kg, today quotes are ~26 EUR/kg. The average over the past week out of China is 2-3X standard rates.
On top of this backlogs are running 7-10 days out of most markets. I don't know the economics for the airlines but I can say definitively that the business would be there for them, particularly for markets like Chicago, Houston, and LA. I don't know anything about finance or supply chains, but what does the cargo markup need to be in order to fly a plane with no passengers and still come out ahead? |
Originally Posted by The Lev
(Post 32225124)
77W has more belly capacity than a 744 and is cheaper to run.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_load_device What is also interesting is when AC first go into the 77W it put in a 3x3x3 economy configuration. Someone at the time told me it was because the wanted the extra cargo capacity but were going to struggle to sell the extra seats. That changed along the way. |
Honestly Cow, I don't know. I'm perplexed by it these last couple of weeks. Planes sit empty all over the world, airlines are bleeding their cash reserves, and cargo isn't moving due to lack of equipment.
We know these airlines have a few smart people kicking around so I would like to think that if it made financial sense they'd get on it. It could be that the couriers on this side of the water are so overloaded they aren't likely to be able to move the items for days. Generally when you order something via air you have the expectation of getting it NOW. Maybe the passenger airlines just don't want to deal with what is sure to be a hassle. |
Originally Posted by The Lev
(Post 32225124)
77W has more belly capacity than a 744 and is cheaper to run.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_load_device |
A poster on another forum said that AC will be running cargo only flights on behalf of a freight forwarder to LHR/FRA/AMS on the 777...there wasn't any source to back up that statement however.
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Originally Posted by Jagboi
(Post 32225315)
Yes, number of ULD's are the same, but the 744 can carry twice the weight of a 772. Makes the difference if your cargo is potato chips vs gold bars. That being said, I have no idea if long haul cargo only in AC's fleet makes economic sense. Maybe with cheap fuel?
If the situation warrants, economical factors may not be a consideration. |
LH is apparently trying to convert some of their 744s (not sure about the 748) to freighters for the duration of the crisis.
For me that implies using the passenger areas as freight room as well. Would the same be feasible for the AC widebodies? |
Are crew rest/layover requirements the impediment?
As an illustration, the recent rescue flight CMN-YUL appears to have operated as a same day YHZ-CMN-YUL turn with a crew day close to the limit. The operating aircraft had been ferried YYZ-YHZ the night before. |
Originally Posted by fin 645
(Post 32226526)
Are crew rest/layover requirements the impediment?
As an illustration, the recent rescue flight CMN-YUL appears to have operated as a same day YHZ-CMN-YUL turn with a crew day close to the limit. The operating aircraft had been ferried YYZ-YHZ the night before. I recall certain countries have quarantine exemptions for airline crew members. |
Originally Posted by fin 645
(Post 32226526)
Are crew rest/layover requirements the impediment?
As an illustration, the recent rescue flight CMN-YUL appears to have operated as a same day YHZ-CMN-YUL turn with a crew day close to the limit. The operating aircraft had been ferried YYZ-YHZ the night before.
Originally Posted by songsc
(Post 32226629)
Good point. It is possible that extra pilots are deadheading on the same plane to operate the return flight.
I recall certain countries have quarantine exemptions for airline crew members. https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviati...sfo9c-2583.htm 705 only
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I would have to wonder how much cargo traffic handled by DHL, FedEx etc is subject to exclusivity agreements .... we'll give you this rate, provided you give us exclusivity as the carrier. Such agreements are SOP in many industries ... perhaps someone with a background in logistics could chime in and indicate if that may be a reason we're seeing parked aircraft in spite of such high cargo demand.
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