TimMinYYZ

I have a Christmas/NYE-time itinerary I book every year, YYZ-YYC-PVR (Puerto Vallarta)-YYZ. Always Z class when the flight becomes available for booking. Until this year, no problems.

But this year... the flights in Dec 2020 and Jan 2021 are showing unusual fare class (un)availability. Ever since these flights have been available for booking (almost two months now), the only available fares are full price. Same story in Economy and in Business.

For example, Jan 6/21 acRouge flight 1847 (PVR-YYZ) is a 767 with no occupied seats at the moment, and it's J9 C9 D0 Z0 P0 R0. Similarly, Dec 27/20 AC 970 (YVR-PVR) is J9 C0 D0 Z0 P0 R0. That flight is supposedly on a Max 8, which I suppose could be contributing to the problem, but I'm not sure that makes much sense, and I suspect without looking that there are other Max 8 flights out there with Z availability. And I don't think the Max 8 issues would explain the Rouge 767 leg.

Anyone seen this before? Very odd.

YEG USER

Could it be that these are essentially Air Canada Vacations charters? AC willing to sell inventory at full fare, but the inventory essentially belongs to ACV? Maybe see what hotel/flight packages are like through ACV at that time. Just my theory - I’ve not looked at this myself.

TimMinYYZ

Hmmm. I have no ACV experience or knowledge, but I can't imagine that this year for the first time, ACV is holding the entire 767. At that time of year, YYZ-PVR is a busy daily route that fills the widebody no problem, with pax who (or at least many of whom) aren't ACV customers. And as far as I can tell from the ACV website, ACV doesn't even offer Business class (or Premium Rouge, in this case).

Since my original post, I called AC reservations. The agent I spoke to checked a few different dates and says it's odd. She asked me to hold; she came back and said she consulted with "Marketing" (Revenue management?) and because it's so far in advance AC doesn't want to release the lower fares yet. If that's true, it's definitely new this year, and it strikes me as a questionable strategy.

zrh2yvr

I'm seeing this for the peak Christmas season. This happens with LX here in Switzerland too. It's a bit strange - - they start the year by only offering full price. There are some people who are willing to pay and know they have to go - so they book it. I'm looking to go to GCM in December and would prefer the connections on UA via IAD - but almost all flights are solely J/C with no D or lower.

Usually around 3-6 months out - they will release a bit of the inventory. With these peak times usually price starts high - then comes down - then goes back up.

You might have to be patient and perhaps subscribe to Expert Flyer to put a fare availability alert on the desired flight.

TimMinYYZ

Interesting. I get the strategy in theory, but it's hard to imagine there are enough people out there willing to pay full fare, to fill a 767. The proof is in the fact that all these flights are completely empty, even though many people, like me, typically book their accommodation and flights a year in advance.

I do, and I did. I've had the alert set up since the flights became available. We'll see, I guess!

RangerNS

"Typically" isn't "absolutely always" so AC might yet make the sale. Or if it was, might make the sale at the higher margin.

This could be a glitch or experiment, but generally RM knows what they are doing, extracting maximum marginal profit from every sale.

bobbytables

They won’t, and don’t need to, fill the plane on full fare tickets. They’ll fill it when they release cheaper seats 6 months out. They’re just capitalising on the tendency of some people to book almost a year in advance - you’re smart enough to smell a rat, but there will be plenty of people who see the prices and think they’d better book quickly before it gets even higher!

Its rarely sensible to book flights more than 6 months in advance - and often less.

YOWCDNFF

I've seen UA do this where they initially release the flight with onlyJ/Y fares roughly one year out, then at the 9 months mark or so other fare classes show up. Not sure if this was itinerary specific (to SJU) but they were very consistent in how they were doing it. The other working theory is that this may have to do with the 7M8. AC know they will operate something from the east to PVR so rather than filling a plane with low fares and then they struggle to resked everyone (different equipment, CNX time...)

TimMinYYZ

Agreed. What's especially noteworthy about it is that this is a significant deviation from previous years. Usually, by now, these flights would have a number of seats booked already.

You're right about "They won't and don't need to". I was being overly dramatic. I should have said that I don't think there are enough people out there willing to pay full fare J to make this strategy work. And the whole reason for my starting this thread was because no one's booking the flights at these high fares.

"rarely", maybe, but sometimes it is sensible. I've saved a lot of money over the past few years by pouncing on the first couple of Z class fares on these very popular flights as soon as they became available.

YEG USER

How do you know they don't? All we know is that there are at least 9 unsold seats in the cabin. J cabin has 24 seats. It is theoretically possible (although highly unlikely) that 15 seats are sold and none of the people have selected seats. Unless you have access to the actual flight load information, you have no way to know if (or how many) seats have been sold.

Looks like they're on to you.

sokolov

I've seen that with A3 as well. When the next season's scheduled is released, prices start very high. Then they drop a lot and start creeping back up.

TimMinYYZ

I decided to check with a friend who's in AC reservations. I really try not to bug them with my personal stuff, because I'm sure they get it from all angles, and I'd rather try to figure out answers myself from other sources (e.g., here) first.

My friend was kind enough to check with the "Route Controller" (part of revenue management, I guess), and the Route Controller responded that Z space will be released; no specifics on when. The dates I'm looking at are "under Christmas protection right now".

Interesting. Definitely a new approach, at least on these routes (YYZ-PVR, YVR-PVR), and I'm not sure how widespread it is across AC routes.

ExpertFlyer alerts up and running.

Plumber

Interesting-- thanks for the update!