Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Air Canada | Aeroplan
Reload this Page >

Question: AC fare goes up 20% and it was not originally a sale price

Question: AC fare goes up 20% and it was not originally a sale price

Old Oct 9, 19, 1:55 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: YYZ, but wish I was in CGN
Programs: Anything and everything
Posts: 89
Question AC fare goes up 20% and it was not originally a sale price

This is gonna be a stupid question but let's see if there are creative solutions.

For the last 3 weeks been looking at YYZ-LHR r/t, with the departure on the weekend between Christmas and New Years. Preferrably the Friday evening. The price for the 18:30 and 23:50 departures was $440 in standard fare for the outbound leg. It was not a sale price as it falls in their "blackout period" so it is a "regular price" ticket.

I was waiting until this coming Friday (for serious reasons - i.e. determining if I needed to be on the 18:30 or could I push back to 23:50) to book it as the current "fall sale" ends on Friday and as such I thought there would be a price adjustment for all prices (sale and non-sale) occurring on that day as part of whatever the next sale is. Today I go searching for the flight and all flights on the same day (Dec 27) show up as $670 for the outbound leg in standard fare.

1. When is it likely will another downward price re-adjustment occur?
2. Is there ANY way I can get yesterday's price by whining and complaining (calling into AC)?

Disclaimer - I am a nobody with no status lol, so no Elite XXk privileges.
wildace is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 1:57 pm
  #2  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Programs: AC SE100K-1MM, NH, DL, AA, Global Entry/Nexus, APEC..
Posts: 16,086
@wildace
Others can correct me but I don' think it is that the fares went up, it's that the lowest bucket fare sold out.
24left is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 1:59 pm
  #3  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: YYC, Canada
Programs: Former AC*E, WorldPerks, Air Miles
Posts: 1,446
You snooze you lose

Fares are market based and based on fare buckets. Supply and demand.
canadiancow likes this.
YXUFlyboy is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 2:01 pm
  #4  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: YYZ, but wish I was in CGN
Programs: Anything and everything
Posts: 89
Originally Posted by 24left View Post
@wildace
Others can correct me but I don' think it is that the fares went up, it's that the lowest bucket fare sold out.
So you're saying that when a fare bucket for economy gets sold the price can spike up $230 right away for YYZ-LHR? I thought it increases incrementally like say $25 or $50 at a time, not $230? and by that I mean just for the half leg. The return leg is still the same price.
wildace is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 2:10 pm
  #5  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Programs: AC SE100K-1MM, NH, DL, AA, Global Entry/Nexus, APEC..
Posts: 16,086
Originally Posted by wildace View Post
So you're saying that when a fare bucket for economy gets sold the price can spike up $230 right away for YYZ-LHR? I thought it increases incrementally like say $25 or $50 at a time, not $230? and by that I mean just for the half leg. The return leg is still the same price.
I am not replying to the dollars that changed so much as the reason for the change.

I see it all the time. One day there is a decent Y Flex fare to YQB and by the end of the same day, it's $200 more. The lower buckets sold out and so now if you want a Y Flex fare on that flight/trip, you will pay more. Revenue management algorithms are magical.
24left is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 2:14 pm
  #6  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SFO
Programs: AC S100K, Accor Plat, Bonvoy Gold, HH Diamond
Posts: 29,851
It might not be that they "sold out", just that they decided to withhold TLK class on that date on that route. They cheapest published fare is K at $115 round-trip. The cheapest published S fare is $485 round-trip. This is before YQ/etc.

They could open up K class. They could close off S class. Everything is a gamble.
canadiancow is online now  
Old Oct 9, 19, 2:19 pm
  #7  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: YYZ, but wish I was in CGN
Programs: Anything and everything
Posts: 89
Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
It might not be that they "sold out", just that they decided to withhold TLK class on that date on that route. They cheapest published fare is K at $115 round-trip. The cheapest published S fare is $485 round-trip. This is before YQ/etc.

They could open up K class. They could close off S class. Everything is a gamble.
Can someone check to see how many seats remain in TLK class on AC 856 Dec 27?

Just did a dummy part-booking and noticed the fare today is S-class. Is there any chance it will go to a fare class priced cheaper than S if I wait a few more days? Can the experts check for me?
wildace is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 2:23 pm
  #8  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SFO
Programs: AC S100K, Accor Plat, Bonvoy Gold, HH Diamond
Posts: 29,851
Originally Posted by wildace View Post
Can someone check to see how many seats remain in TLK class on AC 856 Dec 27?

Just did a dummy part-booking and noticed the fare today is S-class. Is there any chance it will go to a fare class priced cheaper than S if I wait a few more days? Can the experts check for me?
TLK on Dec 27 are all 0 on every flight.

And they're all S9.

It's not like there's a few left, they have just decided not to sell TLK on that date.

They could reverse that decision tomorrow, or they could also decide to not sell S.

There's nothing we can check for you. If you wait, it might go up, or it might go down.
D582 likes this.
canadiancow is online now  
Old Oct 9, 19, 2:35 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: PHL, NYC, DC
Posts: 9,482
Originally Posted by wildace View Post
So you're saying that when a fare bucket for economy gets sold the price can spike up $230 right away for YYZ-LHR? I thought it increases incrementally like say $25 or $50 at a time, not $230? and by that I mean just for the half leg. The return leg is still the same price.
Fares are based on complex algorithms and processes including (but no limited to):

- Day of sale (i.e. cheaper to buy on certain days than others)
- Your IP address (i.e. have you been shopping there multiple times). There are suggestion about shopping in private mode instead
- bucket inventory (as discussed extensively)
- # of viewers at given moment (anytime you view or proceed with a fare it locks up for X mins because they need to guarantee you that price/seat inventory)
- # of recent market sales & confidence (i.e. if there is high number of sales in a short span it will be priced agressively)
- past trends (i.e the day actual college exam schedules are released the fares spike up drastically as people firm up their travel plans)
- manual review & manipulation
- exchange rate & geopolitical changes (some of it is manual review)
- price adjustments in anticipation of fare discounts

What i am saying is that its not a clear cut....hey $100 fares are over now and therefore its $125 next available fare
global happy traveller is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 3:00 pm
  #10  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: YYZ, but wish I was in CGN
Programs: Anything and everything
Posts: 89
Originally Posted by canadiancow View Post
TLK on Dec 27 are all 0 on every flight.

And they're all S9.

It's not like there's a few left, they have just decided not to sell TLK on that date.

They could reverse that decision tomorrow, or they could also decide to not sell S.

There's nothing we can check for you. If you wait, it might go up, or it might go down.
Aside from price, is there any difference between T/L/K and S class? Or is it really just a pricing scam? I am not that new to FT, but am still a baby coming out of the womb "novice" when it comes to fare-class differences aside from the major stuff (J for biz, etc.).
wildace is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 3:05 pm
  #11  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: YYC
Posts: 21,553
Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy View Post
You snooze you lose

Fares are market based and based on fare buckets. Supply and demand.
Only demand, not supply. Prices are not set by a market mechanism but totally by AC.
Stranger is online now  
Old Oct 9, 19, 3:07 pm
  #12  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: YYC
Posts: 21,553
Originally Posted by 24left View Post
@wildace
Others can correct me but I don' think it is that the fares went up, it's that the lowest bucket fare sold out.
Often that is the case. however this I had the same experience as the OP, looking for fares from various origins in Europe, round trip, to US destinations, for early next year. Too many options, same thing, for just lowest fares to have gone. Then I noticed they had a sales going on in Europe...
Stranger is online now  
Old Oct 9, 19, 3:12 pm
  #13  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AC Altitude E50K (*G), NEXUS
Posts: 4,172
Originally Posted by wildace View Post
Aside from price, is there any difference between T/L/K and S class? Or is it really just a pricing scam? I am not that new to FT, but am still a baby coming out of the womb "novice" when it comes to fare-class differences aside from the major stuff (J for biz, etc.).
Same seat and service. Not a "scam" - just supply and demand. They just decide to sell only so many at the low-low-low price, so many at the low-low price, so many at the low price, and so many at the regular price, etc. Those numbers could change as CC says, depending on how they think sales are going.
I "had to" book SAN-YVR-YYZ because the direct was 2X price (low fare buckets sold out but still available on connection). The next day, they opened up some of that bucket on direct. I could have changed but it was SO difficult to book, I will just take the connection and drink them out of house and home at YVR.
Absolute, canadiancow and atsak like this.
flyquiet is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 3:26 pm
  #14  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Programs: AC SE100K-1MM, NH, DL, AA, Global Entry/Nexus, APEC..
Posts: 16,086
Originally Posted by flyquiet View Post
....I could have changed but it was SO difficult to book, I will just take the connection and drink them out of house and home at YVR.
24left is offline  
Old Oct 9, 19, 4:18 pm
  #15  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: sqrt(-united states of apologist)
Programs: sqrt(-school of apologist)
Posts: 5,196
Originally Posted by global happy traveller View Post
Fares are based on complex algorithms and processes including (but no limited to):

- Day of sale (i.e. cheaper to buy on certain days than others)
- Your IP address (i.e. have you been shopping there multiple times). There are suggestion about shopping in private mode instead
- bucket inventory (as discussed extensively)
- # of viewers at given moment (anytime you view or proceed with a fare it locks up for X mins because they need to guarantee you that price/seat inventory)
- # of recent market sales & confidence (i.e. if there is high number of sales in a short span it will be priced agressively)
- past trends (i.e the day actual college exam schedules are released the fares spike up drastically as people firm up their travel plans)
- manual review & manipulation
- exchange rate & geopolitical changes (some of it is manual review)
- price adjustments in anticipation of fare discounts

What i am saying is that its not a clear cut....hey $100 fares are over now and therefore its $125 next available fare
IP - no, that's not how airline pricing works
# viewers - everything is live and no lock up until the transaction isssubmitted (with Visa payment etc) and first credit card to Authenticate will get the seats (you can test this), only someone with a GDS can hold inventory

Everything else I agree with. But it's not priced as live as we think. There may be some adjustments made to inventory, but not to pricing.
canadiancow and D582 like this.
SparseFlyer is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread