AC737 YYZ-SFO Aug 11th - Op Up Likely?

Old Aug 10, 19, 2:41 pm
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AC737 YYZ-SFO Aug 11th - Op Up Likely?

Hi everyone,

I'm travelling on AC737 tomorrow on a 3 cabin plane. I'm UA*G, and see:

J: 17/40 booked
PE: 10/40 booked
Y: full

There are 14 people on the standby list. Two questions:

1. What are my chances of being op upped to PE/J if I don't do anything?
2. Does it increase or decrease my chances of being op upped to J if I buy a LMU to PE? I assume it decreases my chances, as weight & balance would come from the back of the plane, and its less work for the GA to bump PE passengers up and fill PE with Y (twice the work).

Thanks in advance!
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Old Aug 10, 19, 2:55 pm
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1. If you had high AC status, I'd say 100%. As UA*G, it's hard to say. I don't readily have access to pax info to see how many people would be above you on any opup list.
2. It increases your chances of an opup to J, but there are currently 14 seats in PY (you said 10/40, it's 10/24) that would need to be filled before anyone would get an opup to J. Weight and balance is not going to be part of the process on this 77W. Any opups will be due to an oversell.

That being said, Y is overbooked. The 14 people you see on the "standby" list aren't on standby. They're confirmed pax without seat assignments.

Keep watching the app, as a lot can change in the next 15 hours, but generally speaking, you're going to sit where you paid to sit.
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Old Aug 10, 19, 3:05 pm
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Thanks cow. If I'm okay sitting in PY, what does your intuition tell you I should do, assuming the current passenger layout is the same tomorrow morning?
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Old Aug 10, 19, 3:11 pm
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Check in the morning, but there are good chances are you will be sitting in PY if indeed Y is oversold. AC is pretty good upgrading UA*G on oversells.
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Old Aug 10, 19, 3:21 pm
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Originally Posted by chekmanirov View Post
Thanks cow. If I'm okay sitting in PY, what does your intuition tell you I should do, assuming the current passenger layout is the same tomorrow morning?
It depends on what you want.

If you're not okay sitting in Y, you need to guarantee you're not in Y. That requires money. If you are okay sitting in Y and would like to save some money, you can hope for an opup.

LMU opportunities should be available right up until T-60, so I'd probably wait to see how things look closer to departure.

Originally Posted by rankourabu View Post
Check in the morning, but there are good chances are you will be sitting in PY if indeed Y is oversold. AC is pretty good upgrading UA*G on oversells.
Heavily dependent on how overbooked it is and who else is in the back. I agree *G is fairly high up the list, but without seeing that list, it's a risk.
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Old Aug 10, 19, 3:24 pm
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Thanks to both of you. Will do as suggested!
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Old Aug 11, 19, 3:04 am
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Currently more than 25 GTEs.

I think chances are a bunch of people will be upgraded.
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Old Aug 11, 19, 4:31 am
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Thanks cow. Letís hope my gamble pays off otherwise I should probably thank AC for giving me the chance to reflect on my mistake for 5 hours...

With 36 open PY + J seats, if AC actually takes UA*G into consideration in their op up process I have to assume that Iíll make it into one of those classes, especially considering Iím traveling on the weekend. If so, I wonder if Iím prioritized immediately after P*25K on the list.

There are 55 people on the GTE list, which makes things even more complicated...

i guess weíll find out!
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Old Aug 11, 19, 5:24 am
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Update: op upped to J. Air Canada likes me better as a UA MP member than an Altitude member
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Old Aug 11, 19, 6:11 am
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Originally Posted by chekmanirov View Post
Update: op upped to J. Air Canada likes me better as a UA MP member than an Altitude member
I m 6/12 opup on AC transborder to J in last 3 years. That's better than my 1K upgrade rate 😁
And often I 've seen people with Attitude tags walking past me to Y.
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Old Aug 11, 19, 7:42 am
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Originally Posted by rankourabu View Post
I m 6/12 opup on AC transborder to J in last 3 years. That's better than my 1K upgrade rate 😁
And often I 've seen people with Attitude tags walking past me to Y.
Iíve always been lead to understabd that the order is all altitude members, then *G from other airlines. This possibly isnít the case then?
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Old Aug 11, 19, 7:47 am
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Originally Posted by YHZ_Flyer View Post


I’ve always been lead to understabd that the order is all altitude members, then *G from other airlines. This possibly isn’t the case then?
I have no idea what the order is,or if there is one, the cow will know with his insider hookups.
But I know that I've seen people with tags (I swear AC elites must be the proudest tag wearers on earth!) go into Y on my opups.
This includes two times where both me and wife got moved (she is a lowly *S). There is also no way they were on a lower fare, since I dont fly anything above L on AC.

Of course those could be last years tags, I wouldnt know the difference.

Having said that, last time I flew AC in April, I was in a full Y fare (rebooking) - and ended up in the middle seat in the 2nd last row on SFO-YYZ. At least the FA kept the Grey Goose coming, and it got me some extra PQMs
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Old Aug 11, 19, 8:45 am
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Those AC tags are made to last, so they could well be ancient :-P
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Old Aug 11, 19, 8:52 am
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Moved post to this thread

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/31403809-post3829.html
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Old Aug 11, 19, 10:11 am
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Originally Posted by chekmanirov View Post
J: 17/40 booked
PE: 10/40 booked
Y: full
How do you get this information? ExpertFlyer doesn't show how many seats are booked but how many seats are available through their Flight Availability feature.
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