alexbc

Most were surprised with Air Canada switching to 737 Max when they went for their upgrade... now they maybe regretting their decision... and COULD THIS lead to rethinking of only 737 fleet? Could they turn around and order some A320neo instead? Like maybe split their new single isle aircrafts?

I seriously think it should be an option and would also help customer having a wider cabin option, or pick of an airplane when 737 is up and running again (unless there's REAL fundamental issue which may END the entire Max series for good!).

YEG USER

IIRC one of the reasons AC chose the 737 was that at the time the NEO had a lot more orders than the MAX; AC would have had to waited much longer for the NEO, plus Boeing offered a very good deal at the time. I think AC will have to wait a long time if they were to go after any NEO's. If anything, I think they'd exercise more of their existing options on A220 and 787 and re-allocate any capacity a bit differently than currently envisioned as they'd likely get those aircraft much sooner.

pitz

As I understand, the early build A320s basically pre-1996 or so, have some avionics issues which will preclude them from, by regulation, being operated past this year. They also lack the fuel tank inerting systems which are also becoming required per regulation, although perhaps not on such an accelerated timeframe. So AC was somewhat "under the gun" in terms of finding replacements. Boeing offered relatively quick delivery on the 737Max-8's.

Nobody offers a reasonably priced retrofit kit on the A320 avionics for MSN's that old. AC would need relief from the avionics modernization requirements to keep the existing A320 fleet operating.

Just looking at pricing into the summer and fall, it seems that quite a downturn is cooking up -- probably led by a mid 1990s-like real estate crash which also killed Canadian air traffic and led AC at the time to park the L1011 fleet, some 747s, and accelerate the removal of the 727. So AC might actually be able to withdraw the 737 fleet, re-allocate widebodies and Rouge planes to domestic transcons, and mostly get away with things. Maybe they can rope in a few more A320s from overseas carriers that are also experiencing downturns. And defer returning the E90s. Not impossible, although it would significant set their expansion strategy back.

I guess AC could also lease 737NG's if they could get their hands on them.

AC7E7

I don’t think AC will acquire Airbus NEO aircraft. However, I wonder if some airlines may think twice about plans to operate a single aircraft type going forward.

Imagine if the 777 was grounded. It would kill Air Canada’s (and others) international business.

5mm

AC does not have a single wide body aircraft type.

alexbc

This makes sense to me, I am VERY excited about A220, I think it's a great single-isle design from scratch plane and probably most comfortable economy seats in operation! Having said that, they may have to seriously look into Neo, as this proved, a grounding of one type of aircraft could completely ruin an airline. I am sure there are Airlines who may give up their A320neo slots, as many airlines are struggling.

5mm

Airbus maybe able to find more A320 slots, if AC orders more A220?

WildcatYXU

Airbus would have to find A220 slots first. The A220 production is tragically slow.
Airbus would be probably happy to have AC back as A320 customer, but I don't think it will happen. A321's as a large narrowbody maybe, but A320's no.

robsaw

"Most were suprised"? Armchair experts maybe, don't think a dispassionate analysis of the decision-making process expected of AC would categorize the choice of the MAX as a surprise whatsoever.

Depending upon how long the grounding lasts, 20-20 hindsight and regret go hand-in-hand.

Rethinking 737 fleet? Not unless a solid fix for the flight control issues can't be implemented anytime soon, which mean 737MAX production and sales halts.

RCyyz

But therein lies the challenge. A software update for 7M8 is one thing but actually putting in a "solid fix" could mean installing 1 or 2 more pitot tubes, then rewriting the software again to take input from multiple tubes, not to mention the inherent challenges of retrofitting extra tubes with associated wiring etc and the testing alone of all that will need an above average effort given that the fleet is grounded now.

Realistically, sales of 737MAX are halted now. Who in their right mind would accept delivery?

Personally, I don't really see an easy way for Boeing to get out of this one.

AC7E7

alexbc

Exactly! I think if they JUST tried to get away with a software update, it won't fly! Also, could be a very poor move as any other incident will possibly END Max forever! I am actually SHOCKED, they relied on only ONE sensor for AoA?! Are you KIDDING ME?! As a software engineer, when once we looked into Airplane software design, literally everything HAD TO HAVE redundancy, so having one sensor must be illegal in this day and age! I can't believe FAA let em get away with it. Shows WHY these planes are cheap, they cut corners!

So, the ONLY solution for the long run is, (a) Multiple sensors (b) New Software (c) FULL new certification by FAA (d) Comprehensive new training for ALL pilots worldwide at Boeing's cost... anything short of this, and I bet many won't be accepting the fix. This is also assuming the Ethiopian airline crash was caused by the same issue as Lion Air... if it was a new issue, then they may look into YEARS of grounding and multiple investigations, new engineering and design. etc...

YYT82

Stranger

Might be sill a deficit if looking at overall project cash flow, but based on production only, that does not make much sense to me.

YYT82