Adam Smith

The 787 opened up a ton of new routes that people hadn't really given much thought to, so it would be silly to dismiss anything out of hand at this point. That being said, I would think that 321XLR service out of YVR to Europe is fairly unlikely. Here are some factors to consider beyond range:

• Does AC have enough of these routes to justify a sub-fleet of 321XLRs? Transat does have 321neos, so if that acquisition goes through, there's potentially some commonality there, but achieving synergies requires combining the operations in a way that, so far, AC has said it isn't going to do. These could obviously fly from other AC hubs to Europe as well, but are there enough routes where there's not enough demand for a widebody but enough to justify it?
• Is the demand really there? YVR-OSL? Would have to be summer seasonal to start. Even then, it's not a destination that AC serves out of YYZ., suggesting there isn't a huge amount of demand out of Canada. Keep in mind as well that most of the new services AC has started in recent years may not have been daily, but they've been 3-4x per week, usually. CPH is served out of YYZ, so there's higher likelihood of the demand being there, but is it enough to justify flying a couple hundred seats 3-4x per week? In addition to needing to fill seats on the plane, AC also has to deal with regulatory approvals, arranging ground services, etc. Check-in, ground handling, etc, can be outsourced to a contractor like Swissport, or a partner airline like SK, but it's still time and effort to invest from people at AC HQ, which costs money. Less so for destinations already served from a another hub.
• When considering both demand and cost, to what extent is this just cannibalizing demand that otherwise would have flowed through YYZ or YUL? AC has been building both of those up in a big way for TATLs. If AC thinks that YVR-YYZ-CPH is already a pretty competitive option, why go to the hassle and expense of running the non-stop? There are substantial economies of scale in running a big hub.
• How is the aircraft going to be configured? These are ~10-hour flights you're talking about, how do you make it sufficiently comfortable for those? There have been plenty of narrowbodies doing east coast TATL runs for a while, but the 757s that do a lot of that flying tend to have pods in J and some extra space and a lav around doors 2, while the 7M8s and 321s are usually flying routes that are a couple hours shorter. If you put pods in so that you can sell those to premium passengers, are you going to be able to get enough of a revenue premium for those on flights around North America? It certainly limits your flexibility in deploying the aircraft on shorter flights, as there probably isn't much demand for pods on YYC-YVR, YYZ-LGA, etc.

Anyway, lots of stuff AC would need to think about before embarking on this, and there are probably plenty more I haven't thought of. I'm still skeptical of seeing AC fly 321XLRs YVR-Europe.

If AC does go for the 321XLR, I would expect to first see it deployed to reach a bunch of new markets from YYZ/YUL, places where the demand is better and economics more favourable. If it works there, maybe after a couple of years they try something farther west our of YVR or YYC. Or maybe they bring back YEG-LHR or do a YWG-LHR flight or something like that, who knows, but something that's not pushing the range envelope as much as out of YVR.

Jagboi

A Rouge/Transat type configuration could probably work for western markets to Hawaii. A dense economy and domestic J up front would probably sell to Hawaii.

Adam Smith

Sure, but the 7M8 already handles Hawaii. Is a 321XLR really needed?

Jagboi

Depends on what you think the chances of the 7M8 ever returning to the skies are!

Adam Smith

If the 7M8 isn't coming back, I suspect AC will be far busier worrying about how to fill the huge gap that will leave in the fleet than the expansion possibilities offered by the 321XLR

Stranger

Although the covid issue does change the landscape considerably. Consensus seems to be that the flying business may only rebuild fairly slowly after this is over. Which might lead to them getting a bunch of 223s being nerly enough for what they need, and repalcement of their A320s and 763s turning into a longer temr issue. Also, likely quite a few cancellations, so that it might be esier to buy new planes.

Symmetre

I think the bigger question is whether Hawaii winds up being exclusively rouged. Assuming it does return at some point, 7M8 will almost certainly remain in mainline service ... where 321XLR would be a very good 763 replacement for rouge, given it provides type commonality to the rest of the fleet.

Stranger

Although given that the 7M8 has gained an image as damaged goods, they might end up with Rouge.

pitz

If Canada's economy recovers quicker than "the rest", there will be boatloads (tarmacfulls??) of quality planes to pick from in the resale/leasing marketplace.

I suspect AC is going to have to align their capacity substantially away from heavily serving their current leisure-heavy clientele. The upside is that business class....could actually become business class.

YEG USER

I don't think the question is whether Hawaii ends up being rouged. Last year, around the time of the Max grounding, I was looking to book a trip to Hawaii between November 2019 and February 2020. IIRC all flights between HNL/OGG and YVR/YYC were on mainline with Max aircraft. Hawaii was effectively de-rouged and after the Max grounding some flights got replaced by rouge 767, then Omni 762 (YYC-OGG even went to mainline A333). AC also now flies YYZ-HNL (I believe as Signature Service) on 787.

At the risk of going OT, if AC were to buy a bunch of new A321's, I'd wonder if they'd put them at rouge - AC seems to put older aircraft at rouge. Has AC ever bought a new aircraft and had it go straight to rouge (other than used aircraft from other airlines)?

To me, the question is whether or not rouge continues to exist, especially if AC continues with the purchase of TS. There have been many changes at mainline and rouge over the past few years:

• Many mainline aircraft now have added seating through reduced pitch and/or additional seats/row (i.e. 777 went from 3-3-3 to 3-4-3).
• On the narrow bodies rouge changed from the European style business class, to the same type of business class that mainline narrow bodies have.
• AC acquired the Max aircraft, and chose to go with AVOD instead of BYOD
• Mainline Max aircraft flew TATL and sold domestic J as PE across the ocean

As the differences between mainline and rouge have diminished, I could see AC doing away with rouge. Any 321's they buy could follow the Max model for TATL and other long haul routes, especially if other airlines cancel orders due to the current pandemic, assuming AC can survive...

Adam Smith

The vast majority of people have little to no idea what they're flying on, so AC's not going to move the 7M8 to rouge.

It doesn't matter how many times I debunk that, does it, you're just going to keep saying the same things over and over?

I second this. AC clearly likes the 7M8 for Hawaii.

Yes, AC has purchased brand-new 321s for rouge. Fins 468-472 came straight from the Airbus factory.

I don't know whether it's rouge or TS they kill, but long-term, I don't see them operating both brands - I generally agree with the points in your post.

pitz

I still don't think you comprehend how it won't be 'business as normal', and the whole concept of the public using credit to go on vacations or to take lots of trips on AC will be dead at least a good part of the next decade. Thus leaving the planes with mostly legitimate business travel, which is a mere fraction of the entire aircraft (not necessarily 'business' class, but its pretty well known that there aren't that many business travellers in J anyways). You've debunked nothing. AC is quintessentially a GTA-based airline and rises and falls based on the GTA's vibrance.

The housing bubbles that persist in most major Canadian cities are going to pop, and with that, consumers will be hunkering down, devoting funds to mortgages and/or retirements savings. 2-3 vacations a year will turn into maybe a vacation once every 2-3 years. . Even a lot of current 'business' travel will cease.

Rouge is done, put a fork in it. The 319's will probably come back to mainline to serve as replacements for retired 320s and not-flying 7M8's. Most of the 767s will be parked. Most 777HDs will be parked and even some non-HD 777s. Aside from repositioning to recycling facilities, I doubt the original batch of 320s will ever fly again.

Symmetre

Agree that continuing to operate two similar, competing brands is pointless and probably unsustainable. The idea of killing rouge as a brand while continuing to simply "rouge" mainline aircraft is definitely interesting - and frightening!

24left

QUOTES:

"The Airbus A321LR may have an opening to replace Air Canada’s cancelled Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft.

Air Canada cancelled 11 737 MAXs in March so it could have flexibility to order other aircraft, according to CFO Michael Rousseau. The change reduced Air Canada’s firm MAX order from 61 to 50.

“It gave us some optionality on potentially some other planes we might want to look at in the middle of the decade,” Rousseau told the Wolfe Global Transportation Conference. “Those 11 were basically being delivered in the middle of this decade.

Rousseau did not specify the candidates to replace the MAX 9, but he was upbeat when asked about the A321neo.

“The LR would be more interesting to us than the neo,” he said. The A321LR has been increasingly out-performing the 737 MAX 9 on payload and range. “We’ll see how the market evolves.”

Air Canada operates 15 A321s. “They’re good, cost-efficient planes for us,” Rousseau said. “We like A321s.”


Full article

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor.../#baa9c83df1a0
.

tcook052

Yes but now with COVID is AC really that keen to replace the 11 MAX aircraft its reduced from its firm Boeing MAX order? Or would AC try to get a contact signed with Airbus for 11 A321LR that wouldn't be delivered for 3 - 4 years dovetailing with anticipated return of air traffic to pre-COVID levels at that time?