Possibility of Aircrafts Swap?
 

Hi, I'll be on an AC flight between Christmas and New Year's. The route is normally served by an B789 but how high are the chances that they might change that to a 788 due to low load factor (as of now)? Just curious...Thanks

Which route/flight? Your specific flight won't be the only one that fits this scenario. And not all routes "fall victim", if you will, to this sort of thing often.

Plus, there aren't that many 788s now as there are 789s.

Are you referring to 873 or 877? Just a wild guess based on your handle.

845 more likely. Odds for 845 to turn into a 788 are small. Would need to bring one in from east.

For low load factors? Almost nil. Given the high rate of frame utilization, you really only start swapping equipment when you're facing IRROPS.

I once lost a confirmed upgrade when they swapped a 789 to a 788. Probably foroperational reasons, decision probably taken around 48-72 hours before the flight. But surely the loads may have played a role in picking that particular flight.

It either will happen, or it won't happen.

So 50:50.

50/50 does not follow. Who says the two events have equal odds?

Of course, but we know it's rare.

4,000+ flights on AC and I can count the number of downgauges with my hands and feet.

I would estimate that the chance is about 0.125%

Be honest, you made that up. Didn't you?

Make that 100%. Seriously. Odds are *assumed.* Reasonableness being the key.

That was the joke.

How do we define "downgauge"?

I assume it excludes our 787 being replaced by a 77L? :p

I had a CRA replaced with a Q400. The latter has more seats. But I was in J, so it involved a downgrade, and is quite memorable due to them not telling me, even when I scanned my J cabin BP. I noticed when I walked on.

I've had a 763 downgauged to a 321 at least twice. That's noticeable, but nowhere near as bad as losing J altogether.

If a 321 becomes a 320 when it's J5, I'm not going to notice or care.

I'm sure I've had a few DH3 to DH1, but again, it wouldn't affect me enough to remember.

Yes to all of the above.

I've also had upgauges, at almost the same clip.

Oh I remember one day I had a 319 swapped for an E90, and another 319 swapped for a 320.

Lost my preferred seats on both.