mapleg

Maybe so but they are doing better than most other stocks...it's been a bad month.

yscleo

Most stocks didn't fall 20% in a month. This is a stock with some solid news but has dived more than most.

robsaw

No bounce because the "news" is simply confirming what was already assumed to be almost a certainty.

Shareholder

Exactly. Once the vote is counted at the Special Shareholder Meeting and confirmed by the board of directors, I would expect a bump in share price as AIMIA will now be flush with cash. However, the full value of the transaction and cash will only come once AIMIA transfers AE to AC along with all accounting obligations. AIMIA will have to do a full audit accounting exercise before it can distribute the cash that remains to shareholders as a special dividend. However, I don't expect AIMIA to continue operating once this process is concluded. It really has no place in the Canadian market. It is unlikely to be able to start up a new loyalty program here given the dominance of Air Miles among most consumers...and the likelihood AC will maintain relationships with retail partners under the enhanced Altitude/Aeroplan program. I see it following the ACE model and ultimately shutting down and distributing remaining cash to shareholders. (I'm still awaiting the final distribution of a few million $s ACE still holds some time next year.) If AIMIA thinks it still has a place in the loyalty world, and does not distribute most of its AC cash to shareholders, I'd expect a class action suit to be launched. (AIMIA has a NYC vulture fund as a major shareholder and I expect it's more interested in seeing cash than keeping the company operating. Recent senior exec changes also suggest a wind down.)

Fiordland

They still have to other business. The Air Miles in the middle east as well as trying to be a competitor to clutch for building in-house loyalty programs. If they are viable with those two activities and their current shareholders is another story.

Shareholder

To all intents and purposes, AIMIA's Canadian operations will be taken over by AC. There will be nothing really left. The Canadian operations represented over 90% of the income, and most of the foreign divisions have been losing money. When it comes to ascribing value to these two components, the best measure would be Goodwill where Aeroplan is carried at $1.675 billion and the Middle East operation just $9.8 million. Nectar was sold at a loss and other divisions outside Canada shut down. Really not much value in the company once the Aeroplan division (AIMIA Canada) is sold. There just is no market for another Canadian loyalty program, nor would it be worth spending tens of millions to establish one. If anything, once the cash balance is distrusted to shareholders, share value will drop even further.

YEG USER

MasterGeek

Aimia operates some bank's reward programs, such as BMO Rewards, so they may still have relevance in Canada

robsaw

I would imagine AIMIA will be exploring the sale of their remaining businesses - the corporate restructuring required to sustain the remaining business would seem to be a massive change from what they look like now, easier and much better value to sell than try to reinvent.

AC7E7

mjrobson

What's the likely hood of all of the new program details being ironed out before the post-June 2020 flights would technically start becoming bookable in summer 2019? I imagine they are going to want to maintain some levels of continuity

FlyerTalker70

Very high. With regulatory approval done all that is left are shareholders which was the lower of the two risks from ACs standpostandpoint. Keep in mind people will want to know what to do to requalify for Altitude in 2020 ergo AC must come up with the rules before 2020 when people start making decisions about flights to book for the coming year. Certainly by autumn I would expect these issues to be ironed out.

-James

YEG_SE4Life

Actually, what remains to be done is the structure of the new program. AC has had a team working on it for some time now. I am comfortable that they know their timelines. I am equally comfortable that they have a better idea of the Ts & Cs of their current contract with Aimia than we do. Perhaps it spells out what AC can and can't do with regards to advertising their own program.

rankourabu

Or perhaps the enhancements are so bad, they'd rather not say anything yet....

YEG_SE4Life

Line, Rankourabu neck. We will see.