Community
Wiki Posts
Search

Air Canada pulling out YYZ-JFK

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old Feb 14, 2016, 10:08 am
  #31  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: YVR
Programs: AC SE*2MM. SPG Plat life
Posts: 4,644
Originally Posted by LAX
I don't deny the fact that each carrier should do what's best for itself. At the end of the day, it's the bottom line that matters. If you cut a feeder flight to your alliance partners, you won't necessary force those fliers onto your metal if the goal of the flyers is to connect to other metals, especially if AC flies the same route nonstop.

The point is cutting off your partners may not be a smart move as it won't necessarily benefit you.

LAX
Or maybe it's just that the loads were so low and even lower for connecting pax. AC is the only one that knows the data on this route. Also, I don't think AC would lose much Dom traffic because most of the connecting traffic coming out of NY would be from LGA.
Wpgjetse is offline  
Old Feb 14, 2016, 12:28 pm
  #32  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SFO
Programs: AC SE MM, BA Gold, SQ Silver, Bonvoy Tit LTG, Hyatt Glob, HH Diamond
Posts: 44,302
Originally Posted by LAX
I don't deny the fact that each carrier should do what's best for itself. At the end of the day, it's the bottom line that matters. If you cut a feeder flight to your alliance partners, you won't necessary force those fliers onto your metal if the goal of the flyers is to connect to other metals, especially if AC flies the same route nonstop.

The point is cutting off your partners may not be a smart move as it won't necessarily benefit you.

LAX
I'm pretty sure AC doesn't cancel profitable routes.
canadiancow is offline  
Old Feb 14, 2016, 2:40 pm
  #33  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 797
The data from the first 8 months of 2015 shows YYZ-JFK at a 78.02% l/f.

June, July and August ran at 88.2% loads southbound, 87.9% northbound.

Dropping a route with an 88% load factor during the summer says a lot about Jazz's ability to operate profitably, even with it's lower cost base, with LGA type yields, even with an 88% l/f.

Then again, Alaska has dropped YVR-LAX and they ran with a 94% load factor in the summer months of 2015. System wide, they broke even at 68% generated 21.6% operating margins with an average casm of 12 cents a mile over a 1,161 asl, which is pretty close to YVR-LAX mileage.

That illustrates just how bad the yields are / were on that route, even with Alaska operating the route with virtually no yield pro ration from connecting passengers into YVR and out of LAX AND having the only premium cabin of any consequence on the route.

Filling aircraft is easy. Making money whilst doing it is the hard part.

Last edited by HangTen; Feb 14, 2016 at 2:47 pm
HangTen is offline  
Old Feb 14, 2016, 2:54 pm
  #34  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SFO
Programs: AC SE MM, BA Gold, SQ Silver, Bonvoy Tit LTG, Hyatt Glob, HH Diamond
Posts: 44,302
Originally Posted by HangTen
The data from the first 8 months of 2015 shows YYZ-JFK at a 78.02% l/f.

June, July and August ran at 88.2% loads southbound, 87.9% northbound.

Dropping a route with an 88% load factor during the summer says a lot about Jazz's ability to operate profitably, even with it's lower cost base, with LGA type yields, even with an 88% l/f.

Then again, Alaska has dropped YVR-LAX and they ran with a 94% load factor in the summer months of 2015. System wide, they broke even at 68% generated 21.6% operating margins with an average casm of 12 cents a mile over a 1,161 asl, which is pretty close to YVR-LAX mileage.

That illustrates just how bad the yields are / were on that route, even with Alaska operating the route with virtually no yield pro ration from connecting passengers into YVR and out of LAX AND having the only premium cabin of any consequence on the route.

Filling aircraft is easy. Making money whilst doing it is the hard part.
The problem is that even with a 100% load factor, if everyone is connecting to international flights, AC is getting very little money.

Just because their cheapest fare on the route might be $200 doesn't mean that they're making even $50 per person, on average.
canadiancow is offline  
Old Feb 14, 2016, 8:39 pm
  #35  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: somewhere north of stateside...
Posts: 4,144
Originally Posted by YOWkid
Yes...

But wouldn't AC prefer to keep the traffic to itself instead of giving it away to an alliance member? I suspect JFK-YYZ largely exists to steal U.S.-Europe/Asia sixth freedom traffic.

Let's be honest, the reality is that each alliance member is still out for itself at the end of the day.
Well I wouldn't say that's exactly the case. AC does have the transatlantic JV with the Lufthansa Group (including LX, OS and SN) and UA (no flights from JFK of course), so isn't feeding passengers on YYZ-JFK and on to ZRH on LX, for example not much different than sending them YYZ-YUL and onwards to ZRH on LX?

The data would be interesting - including data on the number of connecting passengers to non-alliance airlines. As others have said, there just likely wasn't the right recipe of connecting traffic and higher fares on the local YYZ-JFK market to make it viable.
makin'miles is online now  
Old Feb 15, 2016, 11:38 am
  #36  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Toronto (YYZ)
Posts: 6,279
Toronto – New York (JFK) effective April 3 is CANCELLED
imverge is offline  
Old Feb 15, 2016, 11:53 am
  #37  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: YKF
Programs: AC Elite 50K, Amex AP Plat, Choice Privileges, National Exec Elite, Via Prefrence
Posts: 2,996
Originally Posted by canadiancow
I'm pretty sure AC doesn't cancel profitable routes.
Absolutely given some routes are more profitable than others and limited fleet network.
kwflyer is offline  
Old Feb 15, 2016, 12:24 pm
  #38  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Chilling with penguins
Posts: 13,043
Originally Posted by makin'miles
Well I wouldn't say that's exactly the case. AC does have the transatlantic JV with the Lufthansa Group (including LX, OS and SN) and UA (no flights from JFK of course), so isn't feeding passengers on YYZ-JFK and on to ZRH on LX, for example not much different than sending them YYZ-YUL and onwards to ZRH on LX?
But even with the Transatlantic JV, why would AC want to send a pax via JFK when they can send the same pax on their own metal across the ocean, either on the direct or on YYZ-LHR/CDG/BRU/FRA/MUC/GVA to connect on the less lucrative short hop?

YYZ-->JFK would not make money for AC as the short hop carrier makes peanuts for that run and they would essentially be giving away traffic. And there's no point in trying to pull sixth freedom traffic into YYZ from JFK because most people (premium and non-premium travellers) would take a direct international flight ex-JFK/EWR. Anybody who would prefer to fly out of LGA and connect already do that and AC gets sixth freedom traffic that way as it is. Why erode the latter by sending that traffic to originate at JFK?

Given that JFK landing and terminal fees aren't cheap and neither are ground handling and staff costs, I would argue it doesn't really make sense for the carrier to run the JFK service.

Besides, who wants to fly out of JFK on a CRJ?
YOWkid is offline  
Old Feb 15, 2016, 12:33 pm
  #39  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ontario, CAN
Posts: 5,813
Originally Posted by kwflyer
Absolutely given some routes are more profitable than others and limited fleet network.
Riiiiighhht ...
In a business with razor-thin margins, AC has to CANCEL profitable flying so they can operate "even-more-profitable" flying.
Sure.
CloudsBelow is offline  
Old Feb 15, 2016, 3:28 pm
  #40  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: YKF
Programs: AC Elite 50K, Amex AP Plat, Choice Privileges, National Exec Elite, Via Prefrence
Posts: 2,996
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
Riiiiighhht ...
In a business with razor-thin margins, AC has to CANCEL profitable flying so they can operate "even-more-profitable" flying.
Sure.
Thank you for showing the board your knowledge in scarce resources.

Can you also enlightenn us when WG will be filing for ccaa? Especially given all those irreplaceable YOW pax who were spooked over the Sitka virus.

Last edited by kwflyer; Feb 15, 2016 at 4:41 pm
kwflyer is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2016, 7:18 am
  #41  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: YEG
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 56,442
http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel...map/80419482/#

Air Canada dropping New York JFK from its route map
tcook052 is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2016, 7:25 am
  #42  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: YYZ
Programs: A3&O6 Gold,IC AMB & HH Diamond
Posts: 14,132
There is always TAM and its a widebody & reasonably priced.
djjaguar64 is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2016, 8:17 am
  #43  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ontario, CAN
Posts: 5,813
Originally Posted by canadiancow
I'm pretty sure AC doesn't cancel profitable routes.
Originally Posted by kwflyer
Absolutely given some routes are more profitable than others and limited fleet network.
Originally Posted by kwflyer
Thank you for showing the board your knowledge in scarce resources.
Excellent point. Please keep sharing the knowledge.
I mean, It's hard to even contemplate an industry more impacted by scarcity than Aviation these days.
Not many people wanting to work at AC I imagine.
It’s borderline impossible to find lift – aircraft manufacturers and lessors don't even return calls from desperate airlines begging for jets needed to serve all the profitable Markets that have been cancelled.
And, let’s not even get into the fuel scarcity currently crippling the World
You really seem to know your stuff
Originally Posted by kwflyer
Can you also enlightenn us when WG will be filing for ccaa? Especially given all those irreplaceable YOW pax who were spooked over the Sitka virus.
Seems you like to follow my posts.
Assumed you might have learned a thing or two about the industry along the way. But, You know what they say about assumptions
CloudsBelow is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2016, 8:42 am
  #44  
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,784
wow, sad to see it gone, not surprised
Gonna make JFK connections more difficult in future
jerryhung is offline  
Old Feb 16, 2016, 2:49 pm
  #45  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: YKF
Programs: AC Elite 50K, Amex AP Plat, Choice Privileges, National Exec Elite, Via Prefrence
Posts: 2,996
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
Excellent point. Please keep sharing the knowledge.
I mean, It's hard to even contemplate an industry more impacted by scarcity than Aviation these days.
Not many people wanting to work at AC I imagine.
It’s borderline impossible to find lift – aircraft manufacturers and lessors don't even return calls from desperate airlines begging for jets needed to serve all the profitable Markets that have been cancelled.
And, let’s not even get into the fuel scarcity currently crippling the World
You really seem to know your stuff

Seems you like to follow my posts.
Assumed you might have learned a thing or two about the industry along the way. But, You know what they say about assumptions
Seems you're more interested in dodging straightforward questions.

You know what they about those who invest in airline stocks...
kwflyer is offline  


Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.