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Old Jul 31, 2018, 3:25 pm
  #196  
 
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Originally Posted by YUL
If so, please entertain us on how you interpret this story then.

In my circle, it was pretty crystal clear. Mackay wanted Canada to cave in to Dubai's bullyings. No more, no less.

How does that excuse Dubai's childish (if not tragic) behavior?
IMHO, UAE was more pissed with the negotiations being dragged out and what they perceived in bad faith. I do not believe they charged Canada for having a base and any political fallout that would cause. If you look at this purely from a airlines perspective, it would look like bullying. However UAE would likely have helped other Canadian businesses in other sectors just like they allowed a Canadian military staging base. Bottom line AC did not have the aircraft to make the UAE routes worthwhile and did not want to lose their connecting traffic via Europe to the Indian sub continent. Now that AC has 787/9 and is flying to DXB/DEL/BOM this is less of a issue. It is also my understanding that the EK loads are very good from YYZ even flying 380s three times a week and EY also flying three times a week.
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 3:30 pm
  #197  
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Originally Posted by Points Poppa
What are the chances they offer the First Apartments to or from YYZ?
Close to none. Air Canada's J product is more than enough for the majority of Canadian customers (by more than enough I mean luxurious enough). LH F, CX F out of Toronto have been pulled, so the chances of First Apartments out of YYZ is close to nil as the market has spoken that the J product is sufficient for the needs of premium customers in Canada and that ultra premium products (such as F class) is one that customers will not pay for.

I understand that flights out of YVR (747s and all) still have F, but your question was directed towards flights to/from YYZ.
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 5:02 pm
  #198  
 
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Originally Posted by longtimeflyin
I understand that flights out of YVR (747s and all) still have F, but your question was directed towards flights to/from YYZ.
BA, KE and CA offer F out of YVR these days. Rarely, one of the seasonal QF flights will have an F cabin, but not as a rule. I'm not sure if CX deploys their four-class 77Hs to YVR.
I doubt there would be much of a demand on any Gulf carrier for their F products out of Vancouver, but I'd bet their other cabins would fill up.
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 5:02 pm
  #199  
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Originally Posted by vernonc
IMHO, UAE was more pissed with the negotiations being dragged out and what they perceived in bad faith.
Well, tough luck. Canada always started with small scale bilaterals, subject to further expension later (upon certain parameters, including O/D traffic potential).

Originally Posted by vernonc
I do not believe they charged Canada for having a base and any political fallout that would cause.
That base was UAE's contribution to the operation. Other countries provided equipment and personnel (and suffered casualties).
If UAE's contribution was conditional to allow EK flights, UAE/Canada relations would have been quite different right from the start. And Camp Mirage would have been located elsewhere and/or our contribution would have been different.

Originally Posted by vernonc
If you look at this purely from a airlines perspective, it would look like bullying.
It also looked like bullying from a diplomatic & military perspective. Actually, not really sure from which perspective it was not. From the bully maybe.

You have no idea how that was perceived in diplomatic circles. Childish/immature were the words circulating.

I'm really curious how we should react to bullying, blackmail, highjacking etc? Maybe you have better ideas? (We could use some with the giant pumpkin...)

Originally Posted by vernonc
Bottom line AC did not have the aircraft to make the UAE routes worthwhile and did not want to lose their connecting traffic via Europe to the Indian sub continent.
Possibly. I would even add that AC costs were higher (including due to higher taxes / fees in Canada, mainly in its YYZ Hub, etc). The alternatives could have been to declare YYZ a tax free zone, no landing fees, fuel @ 30 cents/liter and no income tax for YYZ & AC employees. So equal footing with EK...

------------------------------------------------

The net value added of EK flight is not obvious. In most cases it replaces some connecting flights for other connecting flights (agree, some probably cheaper and/or better scheduled)

But worst, it definitely presented the "potential" of killing many existing non-stop flights. In those situations, it would have been a net loss to Canadian travellers.

From a Canadian taxpayer's perspective (and government), I would rather ensure the home team (AC) survives/expands, and continue to provide jobs / pay taxes and... provide non stop flights ;-) . Believe me, UAE also protects its home teams.

Last edited by YUL; Jul 31, 2018 at 5:19 pm
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 6:33 pm
  #200  
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Originally Posted by YUL
Well, tough luck. Canada always started with small scale bilaterals, subject to further expension later (upon certain parameters, including O/D traffic potential).


That base was UAE's contribution to the operation. Other countries provided equipment and personnel (and suffered casualties).
If UAE's contribution was conditional to allow EK flights, UAE/Canada relations would have been quite different right from the start. And Camp Mirage would have been located elsewhere and/or our contribution would have been different.


It also looked like bullying from a diplomatic & military perspective. Actually, not really sure from which perspective it was not. From the bully maybe.

You have no idea how that was perceived in diplomatic circles. Childish/immature were the words circulating.

I'm really curious how we should react to bullying, blackmail, highjacking etc? Maybe you have better ideas? (We could use some with the giant pumpkin...)

Possibly. I would even add that AC costs were higher (including due to higher taxes / fees in Canada, mainly in its YYZ Hub, etc). The alternatives could have been to declare YYZ a tax free zone, no landing fees, fuel @ 30 cents/liter and no income tax for YYZ & AC employees. So equal footing with EK...

------------------------------------------------

The net value added of EK flight is not obvious. In most cases it replaces some connecting flights for other connecting flights (agree, some probably cheaper and/or better scheduled)

But worst, it definitely presented the "potential" of killing many existing non-stop flights. In those situations, it would have been a net loss to Canadian travellers.

From a Canadian taxpayer's perspective (and government), I would rather ensure the home team (AC) survives/expands, and continue to provide jobs / pay taxes and... provide non stop flights ;-) . Believe me, UAE also protects its home teams.
Get over it, we need more competition here, mediocre J service on AC is not satisfactory. We need more airlines flying here, look at Asia, airlines you never heard of in your life fly into BKK and SIN, why not Canada.
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 7:15 pm
  #201  
 
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Originally Posted by YUL
Well, tough luck. Canada always started with small scale bilaterals, subject to further expension later (upon certain parameters, including O/D traffic potential).


That base was UAE's contribution to the operation. Other countries provided equipment and personnel (and suffered casualties).
If UAE's contribution was conditional to allow EK flights, UAE/Canada relations would have been quite different right from the start. And Camp Mirage would have been located elsewhere and/or our contribution would have been different.


It also looked like bullying from a diplomatic & military perspective. Actually, not really sure from which perspective it was not. From the bully maybe.

You have no idea how that was perceived in diplomatic circles. Childish/immature were the words circulating.

I'm really curious how we should react to bullying, blackmail, highjacking etc? Maybe you have better ideas? (We could use some with the giant pumpkin...)

Possibly. I would even add that AC costs were higher (including due to higher taxes / fees in Canada, mainly in its YYZ Hub, etc). The alternatives could have been to declare YYZ a tax free zone, no landing fees, fuel @ 30 cents/liter and no income tax for YYZ & AC employees. So equal footing with EK...

------------------------------------------------

The net value added of EK flight is not obvious. In most cases it replaces some connecting flights for other connecting flights (agree, some probably cheaper and/or better scheduled)

But worst, it definitely presented the "potential" of killing many existing non-stop flights. In those situations, it would have been a net loss to Canadian travellers.

From a Canadian taxpayer's perspective (and government), I would rather ensure the home team (AC) survives/expands, and continue to provide jobs / pay taxes and... provide non stop flights ;-) . Believe me, UAE also protects its home teams.
So what's different now? Why 5 flights/week for EK and EY each ? AC costs have not changed other than perhaps more efficient aircraft. AC also aggressively chases connecting traffic so what's the difference ?
And not sure which non stop flights would have been killed ? AC was not flying to either the Gulf or to the Indian subcontinent. It might have lost some traffic via Europe. So now we have AC flying to DEL, BOM and DXB and we will have 5 flights per week from both EK and EY. In addition to TK and other carriers. And for the most part everyone seems to be competing. The original argument was that there was not enough O/D traffic to give EK/EY more access.
I do not disagree about the home team - the difference is my view of the home team covers all industries not just airline. And it is the Canadian consumer paying the premium for the home team.
In any case, the arguments have been hashed before. I am happy that AC now flies direct to India and DXB. And I am also happy that EK/EY move to 5 times a week.
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 7:40 pm
  #202  
 
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Originally Posted by CZAMFlyer
Duopoly? Given that Sunwing and Transat also fly the route, it's at least an oligopoly - seasonally anyway.
I'm not warm on the idea of 8th freedom within Canada, but am keen to see larger international airlines come into the larger Cdn markets with nonstop flights to their hubs. Air Canada is no small fish, and makes a pretty penny flying 6th freedom passengers. So bring on EK, EY, TK, SQ and the others. Make Calin earn his spoils.
The main beef I have is that everytime there's a new domestic airline competitor, WJ/AC (moreso AC) dump the fares until they go bankrupt. With EK, at least they can survive dumping and bring much needed competition to AC/WJ main cash cow route. Though I can already imagine the headlines "FOREIGN AIRLINE ALLOWED TO FLY DOMESTIC PUTTING THOUSANDS OF CANADIANS AT RISK OF LOSING JOBS" with some snide insinuations that middle eastern carriers enslave women/state owned enterprise etc
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 8:10 pm
  #203  
 
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Originally Posted by YUL
Well, tough luck. Canada always started with small scale bilaterals, subject to further expension later (upon certain parameters, including O/D traffic potential).
Sure. If by "certain parameters" you mean "what's best for AC". As noted in the Government's 2016 review of the Canadian Transportation Act.

"Since 2006, Canada’s balanced approach to determining the national interest seems to have emphasized Air Canada’s well-being as the starting point; from there, any relaxation of policy to allow foreign airlines added access has apparently been measured against its potentially negative impact on Air Canada’s existing, and potential, routes."

http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/ctareview2014/CTAR_Vol2_EN.pdf

Funny how they refer only to AC, eh?

Originally Posted by YUL
That base was UAE's contribution to the operation. Other countries provided equipment and personnel (and suffered casualties).

If UAE's contribution was conditional to allow EK flights, UAE/Canada relations would have been quite different right from the start. And Camp Mirage would have been located elsewhere and/or our contribution would have been different.
Perhaps, but if that's the case, why not withdraw unilaterally immediately instead of dragging negotiations on, and ignoring the UAE ambassador for two years? Try doing that with an India or a China and see how it works out. (Hint: not well for AC).

Originally Posted by YUL
It also looked like bullying from a diplomatic & military perspective. Actually, not really sure from which perspective it was not. From the bully maybe.

You have no idea how that was perceived in diplomatic circles. Childish/immature were the words circulating.
There's folk out there who claim it cost Canada a UN Security Council seat. In fact, there's a real possibility that the expansion of landing rights is linked to the upcoming bid for a UNSC seat.

In any event, I think the most childish incident during that episode was watching the AC COO criticizing the elected leader of Her Majesty's loyal opposition for doing what opposition leaders are supposed to do.

Also, what do you think the Australian government made of all the criticism and lies AC spread about it and it's aviation policy?

Originally Posted by YUL
I'm really curious how we should react to bullying, blackmail, highjacking etc? Maybe you have better ideas? (We could use some with the giant pumpkin...).
Plenty of ideas on display these days. Especially with the current US administration. Generally a bad idea to let perceived attitudes and disrespect determine the outcome. Let's leave that ego-lead brand of diplomacy to the North Koreas of this world.

Originally Posted by YUL
Possibly. I would even add that AC costs were higher (including due to higher taxes / fees in Canada, mainly in its YYZ Hub, etc). The alternatives could have been to declare YYZ a tax free zone, no landing fees, fuel @ 30 cents/liter and no income tax for YYZ & AC employees. So equal footing with EK....
If that's what this is about, time to slam the door on India and China and other countries with state-subsidized carriers. Or is it a pick and choose depending on what suits AC.

Originally Posted by YUL
The net value added of EK flight is not obvious. In most cases it replaces some connecting flights for other connecting flights (agree, some probably cheaper and/or better scheduled).
Well, yes, the benefits of one-stop connectivity to regions that Canadians of European origin had/have no interest in visiting are inevitably easy to dismiss. But the reality is that between 2010 and 2018, the number of Canadian citizens and permanent residents from the Indian Subcontinent alone has increased by roughly 600,000. And it will increase by another 70,000 this year alone: Heaven forbid making travel more convenient travel options to them. And no, let's not pretend PK, which is regularly blacklisted by the EU on safety grounds, is a viable option for everyone. God knows how long it will survive.

Originally Posted by YUL
But worst, it definitely presented the "potential" of killing many existing non-stop flights. In those situations, it would have been a net loss to Canadian travellers..
Depends on which "Canadian" traveller you're referring to. If the loss of one YYZ-FRA flight means hundreds Canadian travellers travelling to India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Sri Lanka now get there one-stop instead of two-stop, is that a bad thing? After all, any fairness principle would dictate that forcing one Canadian, on a longer journey, stop twice to benefit another Canadian get a non-stop to the EU, compares unfavourably to scenarios in which both would have to stop once. Why not let the flying public decide?

Demographics are changing.

Originally Posted by YUL
From a Canadian taxpayer's perspective (and government), I would rather ensure the home team (AC) survives/expands, and continue to provide jobs / pay taxes and... provide non stop flights ;-) . Believe me, UAE also protects its home teams.
I guess you'll stand alongside US protectionists when they use your own position to tank the Canadian economy. Can't have it both ways.

Economic patriotism is the last refuge of bad economics.
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Old Jul 31, 2018, 9:36 pm
  #204  
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Originally Posted by yulred
Sure. If by "certain parameters" you mean "what's best for AC". As noted in the Government's 2016 review of the Canadian Transportation Act.
"Since 2006, Canada’s balanced approach to determining the national interest seems to have emphasized Air Canada’s well-being as the starting point; from there, any relaxation of policy to allow foreign airlines added access has apparently been measured against its potentially negative impact on Air Canada’s existing, and potential, routes."
http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/ctareview2014/CTAR_Vol2_EN.pdf. Funny how they refer only to AC, eh?
Well "National interest" includes the well being of our international carriers, isn't it?

Originally Posted by yulred
In any event, I think the most childish incident during that episode was watching the AC COO criticizing the elected leader of Her Majesty's loyal opposition for doing what opposition leaders are supposed to do.
An AC COO is definitely not a gouvernment official. He definitely can say anything, and if incompetent (or arrogant...), he just gets fired. I'm curious, did he get fired?

Originally Posted by yulred
Also, what do you think the Australian government made of all the criticism and lies AC spread about it and it's aviation policy?
I'm not aware of that one. Interesting, I'll check it out. FWIW, EK themselves also have been pretty vocal criticizing aviation policies of certain gouvernments...

Originally Posted by yulred
Plenty of ideas on display these days. Especially with the current US administration. Generally a bad idea to let perceived attitudes and disrespect determine the outcome. Let's leave that ego-lead brand of diplomacy to the North Koreas of this world.
Indeed

Originally Posted by yulred
If that's what this is about, time to slam the door on India and China and other countries with state-subsidized carriers. Or is it a pick and choose depending on what suits AC.
Among state subsidized carriers, EK presented the most damage potential. FWIW, Canada was not the only country to restrict EK expensions.

About China and India, we've done pretty good with them in terms of win-win route agreements. No fixing req'd if it's not broken.

Originally Posted by yulred
Well, yes, the benefits of one-stop connectivity to regions that Canadians of European origin had/have no interest in visiting are inevitably easy to dismiss. But the reality is that between 2010 and 2018, the number of Canadian citizens and permanent residents from the Indian Subcontinent alone has increased by roughly 600,000. And it will increase by another 70,000 this year alone: Heaven forbid making travel more convenient travel options to them. And no, let's not pretend PK, which is regularly blacklisted by the EU on safety grounds, is a viable option for everyone. God knows how long it will survive.
We now have nonstop flights to the subcontinent - not sure if that would have been the case had we given EK unlimited A380s access.

AC has now achieved a critical mass, with a very efficient / competitive network. The 787s also made many long thin routes profitable - particularly well suited for AC's international network. (The CSeries will also achieve similar efficiencies on the medium haul)

Originally Posted by yulred
Depends on which "Canadian" traveller you're referring to. If the loss of one YYZ-FRA flight means hundreds Canadian travellers travelling to India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Sri Lanka now get there one-stop instead of two-stop, is that a bad thing? After all, any fairness principle would dictate that forcing one Canadian, on a longer journey, stop twice to benefit another Canadian get a non-stop to the EU, compares unfavourably to scenarios in which both would have to stop once. Why not let the flying public decide?
Demographics are changing.
Indeed. And I definitely agree with the notion of free market economy.

But air routes negociations between countries have never been about free market economy. It always has been about "bilateral" win-win scenarios. And it gets even more complicated when one country is "perceived" to subsidize its carriers big time (UAE...)

About the loss of one "YYZ-FRA"; again, having allowed EK daily A380s, current non-stop flights to the subcontinent would not be as they are now - whatever the carriers.

Someone with more intimate knowledge of routes profitability would provide you many more examples of non-stop routes at risk.




Last edited by YUL; Aug 1, 2018 at 9:39 am
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Old Aug 1, 2018, 1:54 am
  #205  
 
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Perhaps I missed the memo here about AC launching nonstop service between YYZ and AUH. Last time I flew AC to those neck of the woods, the only available option was DXB which arriving at 8 PM local time makes it a royal pain in the ... to get to AUH. The options to AUH are limited on *A partners: you could fly MS and deal with the gong show that is CAI, or LH to FRA which is a similar gong show. Don't even get me started on premium cabins: LH service from YYZ to FRA in J is probably one of the worst J experiences I've had on any *A carrier (like seriously who shares a seat with someone else in J?). The only redeeming quality to that flight is that it's on a 747. Meanwhile EK and EY offer premium cabins that are miles ahead of anything from the likes of AC.
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Old Aug 1, 2018, 2:27 am
  #206  
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Originally Posted by YUL
Well "National interest" includes the well being of our international carriers, isn't it?
Since when is protecting the profits of a private company "national interest"?
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Old Aug 1, 2018, 4:20 am
  #207  
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Originally Posted by rankourabu
Since when is protecting the profits of a private company "national interest"?
When negociating bilaterals, "National interest" definitely includes our international carriers. Crown corporations or private companies is irrelevant.

Actually, I'm pretty happy we have private companies (or publicly traded) instead of crown corporations if you ask me. We went that route before.

About crown owned carriers, I'm sure many Indian taxpayers would agree with me...

Last edited by YUL; Aug 1, 2018 at 5:48 am
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Old Aug 1, 2018, 5:59 am
  #208  
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Originally Posted by YUL

Actually, I'm pretty happy we have private companies (or publicly traded) instead of crown corporations if you ask me. We went that route before.
But then don't complain when service goes downhill...

But either way, at least they don't thrive on subsidies and slave labor.
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Old Aug 1, 2018, 7:06 am
  #209  
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$132 million

This tiny number in the world of high finance = 2% of AC nominal mkt cap.

and why is 2% even relevant to this discussion- hint, look at Thread on Transport Modernization ACT?

Well, AC can have 49% foreign ownership now, so the national interest is protected presumably by requiring $132 million of AC capital held in Canada. And of course 49% of profits can also leave the country too.

by comparison, 14 acre future residential site next to where I live in Burnaby, BC just traded hands for $140 mil.

And guess what, Canada dies not at present limit foreign land ownership in something far more important than a vehicle with wings to go get drunk on a beach somewhere - at least not yet.

only question left is when does the 2% limit disappear too, I don’t know, but I’ve been in this business long enough to know when the thought of even getting to 25% was radical.
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Old Aug 1, 2018, 8:21 am
  #210  
YUL
 
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Originally Posted by Stranger
But then don't complain when service goes downhill...
But either way, at least they don't thrive on subsidies and slave labor.
I suspect that if AC was still a crown corporation, the service (and finances) would be "downhill" to levels unimaginable...

I hear you on subsidies and slave labors.

Last edited by YUL; Aug 1, 2018 at 9:25 am
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