Altaflyer

Based on what?[/QUOTE]

Based on AC having abandoned YEG on the LHR route previously and on DEN, on LAX, and on ORD.....the latter 3 all served currently by others. AC has a poor track record of providing service in YEG. The reality is that others make routes work that AC would prefer us to fly on via Calgary!

Dorian

For a while there I thought they were going to 'hub' both YYC and YEG...really.

yulred

I don't have an opinion on YEG. Willing to take any reason at face value. Never been there and probably never will go there either - domestic air travel offers terrible value for money . Stands to reason that if the economic situation is as dire as some say, AC would drop it like its hot at the first sign of trouble. FI has a little more flex.

As for the latter, based on YOW-FRA.

CloudsBelow

What is the track record of AC serving YEGLHR?
Did they seasonally cancel it in the years prior to FI/KLM?
Honest question, I don't know. Might be a better forecast foundation than service handoffs to UA into UA's Global hubs

CloudsBelow

Not comparable at all IMO.
AC maintained (increased*) YOWLHR after cutting Winter FRA. YEG's largest TATL o/d is London.

I honestly feel AC would have squeezed EIAA for more concessions but maintained YEGLHR in Winter 3*w or something if they were the lone carrier. Just my opinion.

yulred

YOW-LHR increased? They were at daily while YOW-FRA was 5 weekly. And they're still, at best, daily.Is there a second flight now?

Yeah, I don't buy it. YOW-FRA and YEG-LHR were always cited as marginal routes - even as far back as the EK threads 5 years ago. Both have disappeared in winter. Only one can be attributed to FI.

Dorian

I agree. I think they would have seen some traction out of YVR for those avoiding the HD...just as I sometimes grab the 330 out of YYC.

The whole debacle of the FI thing really showed EIAA's true colours. Do anything to bring in a new carrier...even screwing your current carriers. Maybe they'll even say AMS is the best place to connect to Europe now, since REK can be cold in the winter.

yulred

AC would have kept YEG-LHR to cannibalize its HD service? To what end? Lose the direct flight premium?

YYZ does the same thing to AC by offering inducements to foreign carriers. Shocking.

CloudsBelow

AC TATL 2014 Winter ops ex YOW was something like 5*LHR, 4*FRA.
They cut 4*FRA and increased LHR to daily.
Now, you mentioned upthread YOWLHR was less than daily, not sure what you mean or if yo're referring to Winter schedule?
Regardless, YOW added LHR frequencies this Winter YoY mitigating some of the lost capacity to Frankfurt

jbb

Where are you? You're focused on the short term. My point is that an airport is an infrastructure asset that serves a community for decades and its success or failure should be measured over a longer term horizon. To take two months' data, or even a projected one-year decline in passenger numbers and then make a big picture statement that the airport is 'declining' misses the broader trends which is what I'm trying to focus on. The bottom line for me is that for a North American city of Edmonton's size, YEG punches well above its weight both in terms of passenger numbers and connectivity.

Are YEG passenger numbers 'declining' in 2015. Yes. Have YEG passenger numbers been 'declining' over the past multi-year period? No. Will YEG 'decline' over the next five years? Possibly, but probably not. Within that context I think it is misleading to describe YEG as a "declining" airport by focusing on one year when it is the responsibility of EIAA to think over decades. When I think of a 'declining' airport, I think of Mirabel in the 1990's, the Edmonton municipal airport post-consolidation, Hamilton after Westjet moved to YYZ; I'm not thinking of an airport which has one bad year.

I'm getting the feeling that this is boiling down to semantics.

yulred

Pretty sure 888/889 was daily with some Monday's off in winter 2014. And in 2013 winter, pretty sure it was daily. Ditto for the winters before that. YoY TATL has declined significantly even in winter. Anywhere between 30 and 50%

AA_EXP09

Based on AC having abandoned YEG on the LHR route previously and on DEN, on LAX, and on ORD.....the latter 3 all served currently by others. AC has a poor track record of providing service in YEG. The reality is that others make routes work that AC would prefer us to fly on via Calgary![/QUOTE]

or not fly at all using AC as one of them is served by rogue, or even YYZ/YUL in the case of DEN

but I have seen domestic addons for international fare components be as low as $50+tax+YQ with international baggage allowance permitted (admittedly, this matters much more only when flying WS.)
(examples: CX/CI fares, though I do not fly CI.)

upgradesecret

YEG has only declined for two months, January and February.

AA_EXP09

By that logic, you would have even LESS airport traffic as no one would connect there or want to visit there (then again, the latter part has some resemblance of truth )
That logic works so well that HKG is considering the $141.5 billion 3rd runway, due to the increase in usage (and therefore retail spending) mainly by people NOT from HK.

CloudsBelow

While it's a shame he doesn't post here often anymore, there might not be a more knowledgeable person around for AC Network ops than ac-YUL .... So, I'll refer you to his post from August 2014
Good post. I see your point.
We're discussing KLM/AC/FI and their network decisions in the very near future. Hard to have a discussion about the market realities impacting KLM's intentions this Summer/Winter with a 5-year view as a backdrop. I'm only looking at YoY actuals/projections to determine if we're in a decline.