Jan/15 - Guess AC's next two TPAC/TATL destinations!
 

AC mainline only, not makeup rouge.

Not where you want them to fly...nor hope they will fly.

What do you believe will be the next two announced routes, TPAC and/or TATL. Seasonal or not.

manila and moscow

From what I gather with fleet allotment, there is little room for any new routes unless some current routes are dropped, or Rouged.

Moscow sounds right, though current political/economic conditions would suggest maybe not this year.

YYC-PVG is my guess.

Manila.
Warsaw.

Atleast one of: JNB, AKL and CTU

For leisure reasons, crossing my fingers on either of the first.

YYZ-TPE

I think YYZ-WAW might work, not sure how well LOT is doing.
YYZ-
Since I don't think MOW will happen (though I wish it would) I'll say YYZ-ARN or is there a market maybe for YYZ-LOS? or YYZ-RAK (though I think this would probably be Rouge if they did it)

Sadly nothing for YVR :(

If there is ever a route to Morocco, I assume it would be from YUL.

I'm pretty sure the first two would only work with 789s and there will not be any more (than those for DXB/DEL) until 2016.

Here is my reasoning.

11 new wide bodies net coming in 2016. All of the planes coming in 2015 are spoken for. So no new wide body destinations in 2015 beyond what we know. DXB and DEL are starting late in the year - unless like AMS the ticket sales and strong and they get increased shortly after launch (IE using one of the planes they get early in the year 2016) they'll stay as is. No change there.

A few other factors:
-> AC likes its wide bodies to run full time in high season, do all maintenance in off season
-> Usually only launches routes a few times a week 3 or 4 depending on the place.
-> Fuel is cheap, places which have the volume but didn't have the economics may have the economics in 2016 if fuel stays down.
-> 4 of those 11 aircraft will replace 767s allowing them to move to rouge leaving 7 planes.
-> Assuming an average of 5 runs a week thats 9-10 new routes.

Therefore my guesses are:
->YUL->BEY (if the government allows it there is certainly demand.
->YVR->MNL -Volume on this run is huge. Old AC wasn't competitive here but lower average fuel prices, and 60,000 new Canadians from the country each year means VFR traffic is just huge.
->YVR -Australia - They'll boost it to the max ceiling. Look at the prices on the existing service.
->YYZ->JNB
->YYZ ->Accra huge Ghanian Community in Canada. Low oil prices will probably keep Lagos off the map unless its a tag on the former.
->YYZ->EZE - an End to tags.
->???->CTU
->YYC ->China somewhere
->YYZ->CAN
->YYZ->TPE (even though they've denied interest)
->YVR->FRA - With the JV and their aircraft their costs are probably lower than LH...
->YVR->SIN - I think this is a strong contender. No nonstops to North America... But certainly the demand. Joe Average traveller has never heard of SQ.
->YYZ->AUH

I know nobody cares about rouge but...
YVR/YYC to existing Euro destinations served by rouge as TSC flys them.

In January Feb. They'll have a half dozen of them before the summer schedule starts in 2016.

Keeping it to two guesses, I'd guess JNB and MEL

Are we speaking about routes in mid 2016? I didn't think these were announced until September...

As for the nearer future:

As I wrote in the GIG thread

2 x 788s in Jan/Feb & 3 x789s in the rest of the year

So far announcements have been made about YVR-ICN at of March 1st, 2015. And YVR-PEK from February 1st through April 30th. And the DXB/DEL for the 789s in late 2015. Also, YYZ-CPG set to resume March 28th and & YYZ-ZRH set to resume on April 30th.

So 787s are spoken for until 2016.

How many 767s are going to Rouge this year?

2 777s, but they'll be needed to fill in while the current 777s are being refurbished.

To my understanding of the fleet math, AC cannot launch any other new routes until at the earliest March or April 2016, unless the cancel something.

The route that surprises me that AC doesn't fly to, maybe because of my lack of knowledge with respect to scheduling, is TPE. I know now that with BR being in *A, that there is even less incentive to fly it, but back as a kid I used to fly CP (and IIRC AC) from YVR to TPE. It surprises me that with such a large asian/Taiwanese community in YVR and YYZ that there isn't a direct flight. Even once a week? Maybe someone can chime in and comment? I'd love to know.

My guess would be:

YYZ - JNB - CPT
YVR - SIN

If SQ can't get the direct flight to work from LAX or SFO, doubt AC has the volume through YVR sadly.