24left

Well, there was this headline on Jan 22 2020




QUOTE:"In Canada, Air Canada stock has already reacted badly to the crisis, falling 4.5 per cent.

If this virus is as bad as “black swan” events, the Canadian airline could take a $475 million hit to Ebitda, suggesting a$7 per share hit to its stock value or a 14% decline from its Monday’s closing price, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce analyst Kevin Chiang in a report published Tuesday. “That being said, it is unknown at this time if the coronavirus will be as bad as the SARS outbreak from 2003,” Chiang said, according to a Bloomberg report."

https://business.financialpost.com/e...canadian-court
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SparseFlyer

This thread started in 2014. I wonder what the people from the past have to say now?

Stranger

Irrational exuberance. Just like I said in the past. :-)


(Quoting that guy who presided over the big bank crash...)

mapleg

They say "Man, I could have had a V8"

JustSomeGuy1978

Depends on if they quadrupled their money in that time frame or not.

canadiancow

I'm surprised no one's posted this from a few days ago, but here's one article: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ai...164649036.html

mapleg

I sense a buying opportunity later this Spring.

YVRYEGYVR

With the issues listed above I would think a little later. They will fall below analysts expectations for some time. I think the whole industry is worth a play, I've never bought but been looking at the JETS etf.

Mikey Mike Mike

Its called profit and loss. costs, margins etc

I think unusually here (and I don't know where in the list these asian destinations are on profitability) but the release of these aircraft now, helps out AC short term with the Max shortage and keeps crews and frames busy. Except of course on Halifax and St. John's to London which remain suspended despite 767, 330s and 319 still being in the fleet and could be used again on these routes.

As i said, it's about margins - which is why these two routes remain suspended!!!

RangerNS

It's about momentum. Adding or removing routes is a big deal

The idle TPAC A/C might support routes that exist today, but it's a huge deal to add routes, especially for only a couple of months, on no notice.

Mikey Mike Mike

The Halifax route has been around since the year dot! (its not new!) It sometimes flew direct to LHR and sometimes via St. John's. Then, the St. John's to LHR become an A319 ETOPs flight direct, before both were converted to Max flights. Since the grounding, they have been suspended and remain so. Despite having the fleet to re-start with former aircraft used on the routes but they are presumably lean routes. (certainly for Biz PAX)
For the second year in a row, Westjet will offer direct flights to London, Dublin and Glasgow, (Whether you want to fly on a 737-700 on a scaled back service is another question)

The other driver I meant to mention is the net promoter score which Airlines get through customer satisfaction surveys and indicates both brand loyalty by yourself but whether you'd recommend AC to friends / family / co-workers.

In recent years, BA's score hit rock bottom through the cuts to food, nibbles, second meal etc etc. Pretzels were cut to save money, and the second meal from the UK was a "fun size"chocolate bar. (just one mind you as they were counted out) They had to reverse the cuts in all classes including economy to provide a 4 course meal, a second hot snack, in flight ice cream etc etc

It is good to see AC proposing to enhance their food including economy. It's a sign of falling behind competitors on similar routes. Flying BA in all classes including Biz and First, their soft product is way superior to AC with the two exceptions of old aircraft with BA and AC splashing the booze.

Enhancing the onboard experience usually costs money, reduces margins but potentially increase net promoter scores and market share. That all leads back to the profit and loss sheet for the company,

jerryhung

no comment today? it was a massacre in Travel names - Cruise lines, Airlines, Hotel chains

AC at one time was -10%, I bought some at $38
it recovered a bit and closed at $40.07
52w week range is $52 to $31

canadiancow

Every stock I was watching (none of which are travel-related) dropped ~5% today.

CanuckMoose

Today seemed to be a massacre for most of the big stocks. With all of the stocks I was watching (Mostly Tech Stocks plus a random assortment), dropping a few %.

I guess with COVID-19 and the MAX situation, some airlines might not get through, but I am confident AC will do what AC does best (Hint: Not Customer Service).

mapleg

34.92 today ..I can see this heading lower than $30 by next week .