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What drives Air Canada's stock price?

What drives Air Canada's stock price?

Old Jan 14, 2016, 6:01 pm
  #136  
 
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
What's your deal in this thread exactly?
Some of us have had opinions regarding AC's ASM explosion and have acted accordingly with AC's stock. It's worked out very nicely for some of us. It's all in black and white in this thread and others. As in, we've bet on our thoughts with real money.
Sometimes it doesn't work out. Guess we got "lucky" here

So, What's your deal? All talk, no rock? If not, post your position.
A secret to be revealed at a Do only

Meanwhile, you can take me at face value, or take me for a fraud. I won't be upset at you either way
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 8:23 pm
  #137  
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Any suggestion if it's time to buy? Anyone think AC will exceed their next earnings call? Because if so, it may be the time to buy. Sparse seems to think otherwise. Anyone have a differing opinion?
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 8:43 pm
  #138  
 
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Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
Any suggestion if it's time to buy? Anyone think AC will exceed their next earnings call? Because if so, it may be the time to buy. Sparse seems to think otherwise. Anyone have a differing opinion?
You do realise it is like trying to catch a falling knife ! In this market.

Canadian dollar 2 hours ago was trading @ 1.46 on wholesale market.
The Asia-Pacific markets are down. Shanghai is below 2900. Nikkei is down almost 2%. Hong Kong is down 2%.
Europe is going to open down for sure in 12 hours.
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 9:10 pm
  #139  
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Originally Posted by yyzprincess
You do realise it is like trying to catch a falling knife ! In this market.

Canadian dollar 2 hours ago was trading @ 1.46 on wholesale market.
The Asia-Pacific markets are down. Shanghai is below 2900. Nikkei is down almost 2%. Hong Kong is down 2%.
Europe is going to open down for sure in 12 hours.
How does this help me make an informed decision about Air Canada? Please try to remain on topic.
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 9:32 pm
  #140  
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There is no such thing as an informed decision about purchasing airline stocks.
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 9:36 pm
  #141  
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Originally Posted by KenHamer
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (BlackBerry; U; BlackBerry 9780; en-US) AppleWebKit/534.8+ (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/6.0.0.666 Mobile Safari/534.8+)

There is no such thing as an informed decision about purchasing airline stocks.
Fine. A more informed decision.
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 10:35 pm
  #142  
 
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Oil is down... lol
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Old Jan 17, 2016, 11:14 pm
  #143  
 
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I started buying AC shares years ago at $0.83. I sold a little along the way around $3 and again at $6 but I held onto a substantial position in it. Almost sold at $15 a few months ago but held on. Now I wonder if I was wrong.

I do understand that the increase in capacity is concerning to investors, but I do like that the added capacity is being added in the Canada-US market and Canada-INTL market, not domestic. If AC succeeds in their plans to attract US-INTL passengers by connecting in Canada (e.g.: EWR-YVR-SYD, LAX-YYZ-CPH, BOS-YYZ-SCL, BDL-YUL-CMN, etc.), then not only are the tickets sold in USD, the price of oil is low, but the CASM is decreasing with the newer aircraft finally coming online. The long term contacts with the unions increases the chances of stability. The regional players are now battling out for more flying (e.g.: Air Georgian flying the CRJ's) and rouge is finally on track to being accepted and fairing well.

Yes the economy is down but I still think AC will fair well and will be poised for an upside when the economy goes up, a competitor goes under, etc.. So I am still buying at this level.
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:05 am
  #144  
 
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Down 3% this morning. $7.55.

There are only two things that drive a companies stock price, fear and greed.
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:18 am
  #145  
 
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Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
How does this help me make an informed decision about Air Canada? Please try to remain on topic.
If you don't understand the fundamental that AC's biggest profit generator is Business People traveling on Business travel in a market where the whole economy is reeling, and everything is down or falling and business's are trying to cut costs.... then you should really NOT be playing the stock market.

AC has overbuilt supply, instead of the markets expanding they are contracting... this is pretty basic...
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:30 am
  #146  
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Originally Posted by hearna
If you don't understand the fundamental that AC's biggest profit generator is Business People traveling on Business travel in a market where the whole economy is reeling, and everything is down or falling and business's are trying to cut costs.... then you should really NOT be playing the stock market.

AC has overbuilt supply, instead of the markets expanding they are contracting... this is pretty basic...
The stock market is also irrational. Certain businesses also get a bump with decreased oil prices and with 25% or so in the energy sector (as a percentage of GDP), there are opportunities for other sectors of the economy to benefit.

In a massive selloff event (which is what the AC stock is indicative of), there are opportunities always to buy as investor fears are sometimes unwarranted.

For example, if I buy today, and at the next earnings call they report better than expected #'s, there may be an opportunity for a pretty substantial correction.

While AC isn't a penny stock, it may as well be for me given the stocks I usually buy are significantly more expensive (so I own less of them). I'm looking at this under a similar lens that some view penny stocks. It's a crapshoot, but if there is an opportunity to make some $ off of this, I'm certainly interested. Plus, I know more about this airline than some stocks that are in the various mutual funds that I hold. So an educated guess is....well...more educated.
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:33 am
  #147  
 
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Originally Posted by YYC009
I started buying AC shares years ago at $0.83. I sold a little along the way around $3 and again at $6 but I held onto a substantial position in it. Almost sold at $15 a few months ago but held on. Now I wonder if I was wrong.

I do understand that the increase in capacity is concerning to investors, but I do like that the added capacity is being added in the Canada-US market and Canada-INTL market, not domestic. If AC succeeds in their plans to attract US-INTL passengers by connecting in Canada (e.g.: EWR-YVR-SYD, LAX-YYZ-CPH, BOS-YYZ-SCL, BDL-YUL-CMN, etc.), then not only are the tickets sold in USD, the price of oil is low, but the CASM is decreasing with the newer aircraft finally coming online. The long term contacts with the unions increases the chances of stability. The regional players are now battling out for more flying (e.g.: Air Georgian flying the CRJ's) and rouge is finally on track to being accepted and fairing well.

Yes the economy is down but I still think AC will fair well and will be poised for an upside when the economy goes up, a competitor goes under, etc.. So I am still buying at this level.
+1

BUT ... new 52-week low $7.41 (-5%) on a quiet day

Record load factor, low oil price, doing everything they set to do, #1 in market (in a Duopoly market even)....
not sure what can spike the stock price anymore
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:42 am
  #148  
 
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July 16, 2015. AC @ $13 / share
Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
I was talking to another FTer last night about AC stock price.

I kept on thinking that it's a smart investment. You can literally see the future* (minus anything unpredictable like an airline incident). You see it with Altitude, the decreasing pitch, the increasing density, the more efficient airplanes, I see it as a crystal ball that AC stock price will go up.
But if you think about it, AC is doing a lot right lately (from a profit point of view).
- - - - - -


Nov 4, 2015. AC @ $11.50 / share
Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
Is it time to buy AC stock? I'm seriously thinking about it at this point. The airline is doing well, it's improving in many different ways, and I think i'm about ready to pull the trigger, being fully aware that the price of the stock today has these factors already...well, factored in.
- - - -



Jan 7, 2016. AC @ $9.70 / share
Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
To answer this question without divulging anything that I shouldn't be divulging....after speaking to a senior director at AC today, one thing I was impressed with is how disciplined Air Canada is when it comes to their numbers. Costs/profits etc. No wonder their stock is doing much better. Like them or hate them, they run a tight ship when it comes to numbers.
---------------

Did you ever actually buy when you said you were? Are all your posts here just chat room talk or, Did you pull the trigger?
For your sake, I hope you didn't.

Now, I got a long lecture in this thread about buying AC stock a couple years ago from some know-better. NOT listening to all that shrewd advice turned out to be a lucrative move for me.
I'm not about to do that to you, but you should think about the fundamentals you're predicating your position on.
Or, perhaps, this is all just fluff talk without real action? Just posting to post?

Well done is better than well posted on AC FT
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:44 am
  #149  
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
Did you ever actually buy when you said you were? Are all your posts here just chat room talk or, Did you pull the trigger?
For your sake, I hope you didn't.
Now, I got a long lecture in this thread about buying AC stock a couple years ago from some know better. Turned out very well for me. I'm not about to do that to you, but you should think about the fundamentals you're predicating your position on.
Or, perhaps, this is all just fluff talk without real action.

Well done is better than well posted on AC FT
No, and I'm glad I didn't. However, the events in the last few days have caused me to seriously rethink things. 1) Massive sell off. 2) Steep drop in oil prices.

This is sort of unprecedented. I was talked out of it on FT - people said it was stupid to own airline stocks. So I stopped thinking about it. However, reasons 1+2 seem to be indicative of a good buy. After I posted, Sparse posted his opinions (and given his background, one I respect). Now I'm trying to figure out the other side of the argument.

Perhaps if you'd like to post something substantive, I'd be happy to read your feedback about events that have happened recently regarding AC stock.
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Old Jan 18, 2016, 8:53 am
  #150  
 
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Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
No, and I'm glad I didn't.
So, All that talk of "pulling the trigger" was sideline talk without aciton?
Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
This is sort of unprecedented. I was talked out of it on FT - people said it was stupid to own airline stocks. So I stopped thinking about it.
When did you stop? I don't see any stopping from the time-line of your insight and opinion above.
Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
Perhaps if you'd like to post something substantive,
This from you!?!? LOL.
You win the Internet today
My posts throughout this thread have been substantive. As in, I really bought and sold a large position when I said I did.
Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
I'd be happy to read your feedback about events that have happened recently regarding AC stock.
In between posting, Why not go back and read the thread.
This situation for AC has been brewing for some time
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