MaxVO

I'll just post this article here without much commentary:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53396057
The sudden meltdown was a bit of a surprise to me -- note the bar chart for ill patients going parabolic since the end of June.

T8191

Sadly predictable, I guess, and a terrible indictment.

johan rebel

Goes to show what happens when you impose a harsh willy-nilly lockdown on a country where so many live in poverty, many without water or sanitation in crowded shacks, and where maybe half the population is dependent on the informal economy for an income.

I somehow doubt that making National Park visitors complete health-related questionnaires is going to solve the problem.

Johan

thijsseh

The issue is that nothing effective has been done to stop the spread. I have been following this from the beginning and from early April the number of new cases as a percentage of 'old' cases has been between 4 and 5% every day. In itself this is not particularly high for a short time, but there has been no slowdown whatsoever. I have done the same for the UK (which has not had a particularly stellar performance either) where it was also 5% in the middle of April, but has steadily come down to just under 0.2% now.
Of course it is difficult to transpose the 'regime' of one country to another, especially a relatively sophisticated UK to a mixed first / third world SA. The SA townships have conditions so crowded that social distancing is impossible and there is very poor sanitation. On the other hand, the mindset of many people there is 'it can't be done so we'll just carry on as if nothing is happening'. It's almost as if the sacrifices that need to be made to slow the spread down are too much (which they may be to many, to be honest). The only saving grace (if one can call it that) is that the mortality in SA (and many other developing countries) is so low compared to more 'sophisticated' ones (SA under 2%, UK over 14%).
Plus there is the corruption and maladministration that the BBC reports on. The Eastern Cape is especially bad in that respect (not only in healthcare but in virtually all spheres of government). And the remarks of the person in charge in that BBC report are especially galling 'we are in control'. Of what?

How does this relate to the tread? I see no way of the spread slowing down in most of the country in the foreseeable future. Lifting international travel restrictions will most probably not make any difference at this stage. But which tourists would want to go there now, probably the only demand is from people wanting to leave the country (I know of at least 3 families in my immediate circle of friends who are waiting for the right opportunity) and a few SA people needing to return home. If the SA government opens international airports tomorrow (which they won't do), there may be a market for one flight a day....

acucobol

Fighting the virus and saving the economy are incompatible aims given humanities current armoury. Even more so in a country like SA where resources and their distribution can be so disparate.
International tourism related Covid cases to SA will barely be measurable in the tally of SA’s Covid infections and death counts.
Open the borders, save the economy. Allow customers and businesses to make their own decisions based on their attitude to risk.
i have flights booked to SA in September, October, December and March. I am prepared to fly them all.

johan rebel

Possible reasons could be straightforward demographics (relatively fewer elderly citizens) and far fewer nursing homes packed to the rafters with the very old, frail and ill. In other words, those who are ripe pickings for C-19 in affluent western countries will in developing countries often already have died of other causes before reaching that stage.

(As an aside: as long as the true infection rate is unknown, the true mortality rate cannot be calculated)

I would.

The C-19 risk within any given country varies hugely between different places and areas. I believe there are good reasons to categorize National Parks and game reserves as very low risk, and would not hesitate to visit as soon as they reopen. Getting there is of course likely to be the biggest stumbling block.

Johan

Ditto

One interesting anecdote is that at best the split of tests between the private and public sector was ~50/50 and in some of the recent days about 2/3 of tests were done in the private sector which only covers less than 20% of the population, the positive rate in the private sector (which obviously include all the population which can for the most part social distance, isolate if needed etc.) is about the same as that of the public sector, this really raise a big question about how many cases are going undetected in townships and the likes

It's not only about tourists, business travel is already allowed domestically, why not allow it internationally as well? Why not just allow commercial flights to operate with some limit on who may enter (e.g. people arriving from "green" countries and/or require a negative PCR/quarantine etc.) and let the airlines decide for themselves if they want to operate or not? Some of them are already operating cargo flights and I suspect adding PAX to same flights will not cause a huge difference to their profits.
KLM have been organizing repatriation flights throughout June/July and more are planned for August, AFAIK they are all leaving pretty much fully booked. TK have also just added 4 repatriation flights from CPT (once a week from next week onward), this is with all the limitations currently in place.

I can only vouch about myself, having left SA on a "repatriation" flight in May I would very much like to go back as Mrs. Ditto is still there, the main thing stopping me is the inept-ability of DIRCO/NatJoints around allowing airlines to bring PAX in, I have no intention of throwing money and wasting time trying to get on such a flight only to find out last minute no PAX are allowed, not to mention I'm not sure I'd like to stay in a ZA government operated quarantine facility.

thijsseh

Please note that it appears that ALL visitors now need a visa to enter South Africa.
Source

Ditto

It would appear from the linked document that this only applies to those who already holds a temporary residence visa.

Postdoc

It certainly applies to UK visitors, as the VISA exemption was withdrawn in March:

Department of Home Affairs - Exempt Countries

T8191

YAY!! Jersey is exempt!!

I trust that a UK airport transit on the way doesn't impact on that. Anyway, I'll worry about that nearer the time, expecting ex-UK flights to be a no-no in December!

Postdoc

We've got three upcoming flights to CPT: September (clearly out), December (looking dismal) and next March (fingers crossed). Buying a property in SA doesn't seem such a wise idea now!

T8191

You certainly picked your moment!! Good luck.

thijsseh

Thank you, assuming that list is kept up to date (I mean the deletions in red), this is quite useful!

acucobol

Deputy Tourism minister indicating borders will only open in 2021

https://www.tourismupdate.co.za/arti...eputy-minister

“The virus is likely to flatten in September according to health experts. At this point in time, borders open for international travellers is likely to be January 2021,” explained Mahlalela.