The frog boiling process continues, FR board approves TATL plan.....

http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?cod...ic_Service__FT

I'm not sure how that is directly relevant to the IAG/EI question....

And anyways, the timing of this "announcement" is of little direct consequence. FR have been saying this for years (literally - see threads below from right here on FT!). As they say today, they still don't have any aircraft available to them so it would 4-5 years before they could start...

2001: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/aer-l...ic-routes.html
2007: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...ntic-08-a.html
2007: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...-atlantic.html
2007: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/briti...c-service.html
2007: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...satlantic.html
2008: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...s-ryanair.html
2008: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...lights-us.html
2008: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...l-flights.html
2014: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/budge...s-ryanair.html

Ok, while not directly relevant, I think it does increase the stakes. An independent EI is likely to face increased TATL competition from both the various Joint Venture airlines and from FR over the coming years.

While the Irish politicians may believe that EI does not need the IAG deal, EI management must understand the competitive threats on the horizon. Cash will likely be tight as they try to replace the fleet while being attacked on all sides.

I thought this announcement was different in that it is not just one of MOL's rants, but the approval of the FR board to actively develop plans. Also the 5yr timeline mentioned sounds like it is a more serious proposal than previously.

Given the leveling out of growth under the FR historical business model, it makes sense that they need to explore new ways of growing over the longer term.

Aer Lingus appears to be unnecessarily rocking the boat, in that it is baiting Ryanair, and doing the opposite of what IAG wants!

Etihad's James Hogan has also indicated his willingness to dispose of his holding to IAG.

So much for my theory, it seems they have back-tracked and there are no plans to go TATL.

Does make the FR board seem stupid, I thought the board would be more deliberate and considered in their statements

The Irish Government grinds forward...
 

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...port-1.2160654

Aer Lingus will not be sold unless “an acceptable price’’ is secured, Minister for Transport Paschal Donohoe has told the Seanad.
Mr Donohoe said many legitimate concerns had been voiced about the International Airlines Group’s proposed offer, and the Government had outlined the details and clarification it needed in that regard.
“The interdepartmental group has continued discussions with IAG,’’ he said. “I have made it clear I wish to see this matter brought to a conclusion within a number of weeks.’’
He said connectivity, including connectivity with the regions, and employment, were exceptionally high among the criteria


[Huffing and puffing from an Independent Senator]

Mr Barrett said he would welcome a decision by BA to enter the Irish market, but not if the price was the acquisition of Aer Lingus

Funny - BA already serves DUB from LHR AND LCY.

I wonder what an acceptable price is - when there are no other credible bidders?

That "Mr. Barrett" appears to be dead set against any EI sale:

I believe he's the senator who, in questioning Willie Walsh during his appearance before the Oireachtas Transport Committee, could barely seem to hide his contempt for, and bitterness towards, IAG, Willie Walsh, and the whole idea of a sale.

In other news - Virgin Atlantic has weighed in - with the European Commission, apparently - and have therefore managed to wangle an invitation to appear in front of said Oireachtas Transport Committee. As Willie Walsh has said in recent days, he's more interested in hearing Irish peoples' opinions, rather than those of Virgin (who have no services to/from Ireland) and the likes of Donald Trump, who also weighed in saying the deal would be bad for Ireland.

What the feck does Trump know about Ireland?


And Beardy has had the chance to run a LON-DUB service at anytime in the last 25 years. He hasn't. How did the EI wet lease, erm Little Red work out?

It seems as if every know-all has to be wheeled out before the IAG deal is authorised. Still - Willie is pretty shrewd - as he says in the RTE piece:

Mr Walsh said he would be "delighted" to see Virgin Atlantic granted its request to appear before the Oireachtas Committee.

"It's not unusual for Virgin to see if they can get something out of a process so it didn't surprise me. But I think it would be very interesting for Virgin to appear before the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Transport and explain their interests in the Irish market given that they don't fly here.

"As far as I'm concerned or aware they've never shown any interest in flying to Ireland or in serving the Irish market," he said.

The IAG boss said he was not surprised to hear Donald Trump's comments either.

"He's got a little golf course down at Doonbeg which is very close to Shannon airport. I was looking at the flight paths in and out of Shannon because I think he's taking a legal challenge against an airport near one of his resorts in the US because the aircraft are flying over it," said.

"I've never played the golf course but I believe it's beautiful and maybe I'll get an opportunity to visit there some day".

Mr Walsh also responded to an Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI opinion poll yesterday which suggested 54% of Irish voters believe the Government should not sell the State's shareholding in Aer Lingus.

"Maybe people need to be reminded that the Government sold Aer Lingus a number of years ago. The Government retains a minority stake in the business of just over 25%," he said.

Virgin did once fly Dublin to London City...but it was operated by CityJet, back in that airline's very early days!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...200_Aragao.jpg

Ooh. Brandslap.

Didn't last long did it?

I assume a log of the huffing and puffing is being driven by i) North Dublin vested interests ii) The left who regard the disposal of a 25% stake as extreme capitalism and iii) Nationalism - Down With This Sort Of Thing.

Surely the writing is on the wall now? With only Beardie himself (of those actually involved in aviation) turning up his nose...

Beardie can't talk having gone into bed with DL. He did the same when bmi was sold, all smoke, no action. He is of course free to launch VS service directly from DUB :D

Careful now.

Perhaps a deal will be done after all..

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/t...deal-1.2178231

Beaten to it by BApilotinsider!