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Negative covid test when arriving from 5 more countries

Negative covid test when arriving from 5 more countries

Old Sep 23, 20, 2:12 am
  #46  
 
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Where the all-time high is still only a fraction of the numbers in NL, by the way. The numbers in NL are around 2000 confirmed cases per day (17M population), while Greece (including refugee camps) is hovering around 350 a day (11M population).
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Old Sep 25, 20, 1:16 pm
  #47  
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But are the Greek case count to be trusted ? Today there is 9 deaths, so that means 1800 new cases 3 weeks ago assuming an IFR of 0.5%. Three weeks ago Greece reported around 200 cases daily. So a lot of missed cases.
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Old Sep 25, 20, 6:26 pm
  #48  
 
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Total # of cases as of yesterday: 16,913
Total number of deaths: 369
"IFR" for Greece: ~2.2% and not 0.5%!

At any rate, overall statistics based on a single day's numbers can never be used for any kind of conclusion. Given that the number of deaths went from 9 down to three the next day, it would mean an "improvement" of the situation. Moreover, nobody has ever published, anywhere in the world, that Covid-19 fatalities occur three weeks after testing! Fortunately, our epidemiologists do know their business very, very well and can be trusted.
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Old Sep 26, 20, 2:23 am
  #49  
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No 2.2% is the CFR, not the IFR.
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Old Sep 26, 20, 3:27 am
  #50  
 
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If I'm understanding correctly the difference between CFR and IFR is if a person has been tested and confirmed to carry the virus, compared to if somebody is expected to carry the virus (through symptoms or analytical models). Having been both in NL and GR in the past weeks I can say that the testing policy is indeed vastly different between countries. In NL anyone can (theoretically) get tested, and is encouraged to do so, when they show symptoms of a cold. Practically they are lacking testing resources (Somebody in the government decided that it would not be beneficial to work with labs that can actually process large numbers of tests), but the number of tests performed per week is still around 200K.

In Greece there is no such policy and people around me that I know to have cold symptoms do not get tested. There is little to no encouragement to seek a way to get tested unless one shows severe symptoms and needs medical help. Sure, since yesterday there is a 'mobile test lab' in Athens where people can theoretically go when they show some symptoms, but honestly, I see that more as a political publicity stunt than anything else. I cannot imagine that mobile doctors office to perform more than a few hundred tests per day. As far as I know that's the only place in Greece where one can get tested voluntarily.

But also the number of fatalities is not really comparable. Different countries classify cause of death using different criteria in case of (possible) covid. Some people say to look at the numbers of deceased from last year and compare that to this year - but that's not fair either...this year the number of fatalities from other causes (other illnesses, traffic, etc) will have been lower than last year. So even if the overall number of deaths is the exact same as last year, you still may have a rather large number of covid-related deaths within that group.
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Old Sep 26, 20, 6:29 am
  #51  
 
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Here are the official numbers as of last midnight:

Greece, # of tests 1,256,436, tests/million popul. 120,686 /// # of cases 16,913, # of deaths 369
Netherl., # of tests 2,240,526, tests/million popul. 130,689 /// # of cases 105,918, # of deaths 6,328

Note similar relative numbers for the number of tests carried out, yet a big disparity in the number of positives and deaths.

Yes, cause of death classification may change from country to country, but this no way leads to differences in the range of ± one order of magnitude for the above values.

As for IFR vs. CFR, I do know the difference (which is why I put the IFR in quotes in my previous answer. Unless a complete serological survey for a very large number of people (including people who got sick at the first phase of the pandemic, as well as asymptomatic ones!) is carried out, there is no way to correctly calculate the IFR, which is why this theoretical metric, at this moment, is not as crucial for some day-to-day decisions. Fransknorge, you "assumed" a specific value for the IFR (currently it is generally assumed to be between 0.5% and more than 1% but less than 1.5%) but, on the other hand, you used actual case numbers (i.e. forgetting asymptomatics) to make a point on the validity of Greek numbers. For me, the bottom line is to leave "discussions" on epidemiology to epidemiologists (I was one, till I retired a few years back) because they may lead to false conclusions (not that epidemiologists are always correct? )
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Old Sep 26, 20, 2:54 pm
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
I was one, till I retired a few years back
Very interesting, and (not being sarcastic here) you are probably the person to school most of us here on this topic then

I'm curious about these numbers, specifically the number of tests done in Greece. Where I am (south of Peloponnese) I literally don't know anybody who has gotten tested, or is aware how/where they theoretically could get tested and at which symptoms it would be appropriate to do so. Comparing that to NL where quite a few of my colleagues in the office have gotten tested when they started to show cold symptoms (A quick count... about ~10% of them maybe). It 'feels' like a magnitude more tests are being done in NL (But such feeling could be deceptive, I admit) based on the people I've met in both countries.

Would Greece be counting all the tests that they have done at the borders (since June) within these numbers? I don't know if those would make a significant difference in the total number, but still. I think ATH was doing about 1000 tests a day at some point though I may be way off on that.

The statistics of it all are quite interesting. Math is not my thing but with something like this, that affects most of us so profoundly, I'd like to (try to) understand how the numbers make sense.
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Old Sep 27, 20, 10:16 am
  #53  
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Figure lifestyle has something to do with it? Can't imagine that someone from naxos or karpathos would like cramped public transport on a rainy Thursday in November in Holland.

But still, my point remains. We are at 6x the infections from the point where they imposed restrictions in the summer. figure they left it intact, as the island are orange.
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Old Sep 27, 20, 10:21 am
  #54  
 
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Well - as someone who has done some studies in statistics, I can tell you that even the number of tests and the resulting cases do not result in comparable numbers, since they are not "controlled experiments".

For instance, if you test a lot of times people without symptoms (and maybe even some people more than once), you are much more likely to get lower resulting cases, then if you predominantly test people with symptoms.
So number of tests is more or less the same, but outcome is very different.

You would need to select a random, but representative sample of each population, and have the same parameters (i.e. same type of test from same company, same classification of case, etc) to have comparable results.
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Old Oct 1, 20, 9:11 pm
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Poland is added to the negative PCR test list from 3 Oct
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Old Oct 1, 20, 11:42 pm
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Originally Posted by palcsaky View Post
Poland is added to the negative PCR test list from 3 Oct
There go my plans! Any chance they will cancel flights!?
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Old Oct 2, 20, 1:06 am
  #57  
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Originally Posted by palcsaky View Post
Poland is added to the negative PCR test list from 3 Oct
how the hell not dutch?
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Old Oct 2, 20, 1:07 am
  #58  
 
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headingwest Unlikely as that way they can keep all the cash from no shows and a lighter plane burns less fuel
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Old Oct 2, 20, 1:34 am
  #59  
 
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Originally Posted by palcsaky View Post
Poland is added to the negative PCR test list from 3 Oct
Passengers entering Greece, via air connections, from Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, United Arab Emirates, Hungary, Israel, Spain, Belgium, Albania, North Macedonia, Russia, Czech Republic (either direct or Transit) and Poland are required to show the PLF as well as a negative molecular control (PCR) result for the coronavirus, which has been carried out during the last 72 hours before their arrival in Greece.

I did not realize that the Polish numbers were that high, but I have noticed that mask-wearing in Poland is hit and miss. Last night on my LO WAW-IEG connecting flight there were 5 pax that did not have a mask on at the gate, on the bus to the aircraft and when boarding the FA advised them masks were required and they replied "oh, right. I am not used to this yet." Their English was not American, so not sure what rock they have been living under for the past few months.

Interestingly, on the A3 ATH-WAW yesterday, Y was packed and C half-full.
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Old Oct 2, 20, 2:11 am
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Originally Posted by headingwest View Post
There go my plans! Any chance they will cancel flights!?
I'm wondering if I ever fly
It failed - my fifth attempt to fly on a ticket bought in July 2019.
My case described in the other thread ended with credit voucher request what involved denying changes in schedules of two other flights/tickets and requesting next two vouchers.
In total, I will have 4 vouchers, 3 of them at nice10% interest rate.
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Last edited by Grigoris; Oct 2, 20 at 2:17 am
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