I do not know for sure about your situation, but last month when I was checking at EWR for a NWA flight to AMS, a guy in the FC line was getting all the attention from all 3 of the TAs there. (Basically ignoring me in the line... as I was trying to check my bags for my trip to AMS in WBC!)
Anyway, I could not help but overhear their conversation about his problem, which was that his passport would expire within 3-6 months (can't remember exactly right now). He argued that his passport was still good and that he would go to the consulate in Paris the day he arrived to get it renewed for return, to no end. In the end, the TA would not check him in, and told him that they would need him to get the passport renewed before the flight.
If I were you, I would do the expedited renewal, or go to a Federal building with your plane ticket to get an expedited renewal.