I am planning a trip to Bangkok before the end of February and I have a dozen SWU. I have the choice of travelling YYZ-HONG KONG OR YYZ- TOKYO then to BKK. Both return flights have I=0 but many empty seats. Both are the same price.

Any frequent flyer can tell me which one will give me a better chance for an upgrade?

I will post on the upgrade thread with the exact dates when my reservations are made to allow someone to take advantage of one of my SWU.