FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Anyone ever surprised by no BUR-JFK?
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Old May 29, 07, 3:11 pm
Join Date: Mar 2007
Programs: AA 1MM
Posts: 3,182
Originally Posted by Boraxo View Post
No but I predict the following surprises within the next 5 years:

AA: BUR-JFK, possibly BUR-MIA and BUR-BOS (or BOS area),
UA: BUR-IAD and maybe also BUR-JFK and BUR-HNL/OGG

As written elsewhere, the big airports like LAX, SFO, etc. are very close to maxing out capacity and there is little room for expansion due to growth constraints/opposition to runway development. So secondary airports like BUR, SJC, etc will be getting more flights. Alaska just announced service from Sonoma/Marin. And everyone keeps touting Palmdale, though I think that one is a bit far off.

No question that Orange Co. could use some expansion, but with El Toro nixed that may be a while in coming.

But given the # of studio types that live closer to BUR, the loads in C/F on this route, and the traffic and mess at LAX, BUR-NYC is a no-brainer. It may just take a few years before they have the necessary planes as they are still ramping up the even-more-profitable international service.
Personally, I don't really see it, but that's just me. And, if I did see it, I would see someone trying a version of Eos/MaxJet on domestic routes that cater to this type of traveler. BUR doesn't offer as much convenience to vacationers (IMO) or non-industry types (or even industry types who don't live/work near BUR), so you'd have to bank on the high-rev traffic, who travel in premium cabins (and fill more than the 22 seats on a 757).

It also will never see the volume of connecting traffic that LAX does because you can't get to Australia, Japan, HI, China, etc. from there. It all has to be O/D, and it has to be high enough revenue (even in economy) to turn a profit. And while the NBC/Uni guys may like B6, I doubt many of them will enjoy econ on an AA 757. Just my $0.02, and I've been wrong before.
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