"Slim chance" or......next to none?
Elite upgrades are not offered on flights to/from HNL. Only domestic, Canada, Mexico and Caribbean. In case of oversale, there is the possibility of an operational upgrade, but at that time of year I would not count on it. Perhaps your best bet, if you want to be in First, is to spend the extra miles and get FC award tickets. You can do this round-trip, or only one-way, as you prefer.
But, as I have said before, IMHO an Elite member should not be flying on an award ticket! Especially at that time of year when you can fly to HNL from anywhere very cheaply!!! A purchased ticket would have netted you 10,000 EQM's, 10,000 bonus miles, and might have qualified you for Platinum instead of Gold. The 20,000 miles would come close to getting another free ticket for your wife to join you on another trip in the future. Do the Math!!!