View Single Post
Old Jan 31, 07, 11:07 pm
  #21  
Pickles
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Boston, Jo'burg, HK
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Lifetime Diamond, CX Gold, Mrs. Pickles travels for free
Posts: 11,411
Originally Posted by AlexS View Post
They can put in my AA number, but then I won't have a chance at getting my "magical mystery complimentary" upgrade. I need to be using a JAL FF account for that.
Look at the bright side of things: Take the difference in overall quality between JAL and AA in C, and multiply by the probability of getting your upgrade. This gives you the expected value of your decision to take a gamble, and a clear benchmark for choosing between a sure Y flight in AA or the chance of an upgrade in JAL. What do you give up? The AA miles, of course.

In my view, that probability would have to be pretty low (I'd say 30%) before I chose the sure AA thing. If the magical mystery upgrade is a near sure thing, it is worth giving up the AA miles for that. Trust me.

...unless, of course, the JAL flight has the old seats, in which case, I may slum it out in coach in AA...
Pickles is offline