BEYFlyer, I certainly hope that your preparations prove not to be necessary and that Beirut is spared any military retaliation from Israel but I am not overly optimistic about that.
I am going to attempt to write the rest of this post as objectively as my journalistic experience allows me and try to put aside any personal feelings I might have as a resident of an area which came under fire this morning.
As I am writing this, I can hear constant firing. It all, however, sounds like outgoing artillery and bombs being dropped by the IDF north of my home (in Southern Lebanon).
According to Israeli television, IDF ground troops have moved into Lebanon in an attempt to find the two soldiers. The odds of them being successful, however, are small.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has declared the attacks an "act of war" and says he holds the government of Lebanon responsible for them.
Israeli Army reserve units have been put on alert for call up and a Government meeting is scheduled for 7 pm to determine what action to take.
Under international law, Lebanon is, indeed, responsible for Hizbollah's actions. It would not be had it taken all possible steps to keep Hizbollah from launching any attacks from within its borders, but it has taken no such steps at all. Indeed, Lebanon has repeatedly said that it is not the guarantor of Israel's safety.
On the other hand, it is very doubtful that the Lebanese government could take any effective steps even if it wanted to. The Lebanese military is very weak and I don't know what action it would be able to undertake against Hizbollah -- which certainly is stronger in the southern part of the country.
Moreover, if the Lebanese military were to attack Hizbollah, it would risk having Syria enter on Hizbollah's side. It would also risk re-igniting the tragic civil war the country endured for so long.
The worst possible scenario that Lebanon faces is Israel reacting with unrestrained attacks against the entire South and Beirut. The best that it can hope for is Israel restricting itself solely to Hizbollah targets in the South.
The probability is that Israel will do something in between. It will most likely concentrate on the South, and keep any ground troops in that area, but may well go after Lebanese infrastructure (such as electrical plants) in other parts of the country. This could easily result in widespread problems in Lebanon.
From an economic point of view, the situation is ripe with danger to both countries. The attacks came in the beginning of the tourist season and even the most restrained fighting, in a very restricted area, is liable to frighten off tourism to both Israel and Lebanon. As tourism is a major industry in both countries (albeit more important to the Lebanese economy than to Israel's) the impact is certain to be major.
Okay, that was my
objective view. Now for my FlyerTalker view:
With a lot of luck, Israel will find the two soldiers quickly (and alive) and stop all further actions. Hizbollah will have gotten a good scare and not attack again. In the meantime, all the tourists going into Israel and Lebanon will be scared off, cancel their reservations, and you and I will be able to get airline tickets anywhere for pennies.
