We put together an upgrade database at upgradesuccess.com that will (hopefully) answer these questions if we can get enough people to enter segment details (e.g. successful and unsuccessful upgrades). At this point, HP is on the data entry page and will be shortly added to the summary table on the front page of the site. We're also going to shortly add a separate summary table that will have a breakdown by elite status as well as full search functionality that will enable segement searches.