Old Apr 13, 05, 12:12 am
  #1  
cslusarc
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Winnipeg, MB, CANADA
Posts: 504
Which international routes would you like NW to launch?

I've heard the recent chatter about NW choosing to order 15 or so Boeing 787-8s. This got me thinking of where NW would use these birds first. I'm not expecting them to arrive until the 2010-11 time frame by which time International traffic between the United States will have grown by about 25-30% above 2004 levels of 30,458,126,000 revenue passenger miles.
Between now and 2010, I'm expecting NW to only take delivery of the A332 and A333s that NW has already ordered. I believe this leaves significant room for growth.


For example :
Between the US and Asia transported 20 billion RPMs in 2004:
I believe that as both transpacific traffic and congestion at NRT growns, NW may need to remove spokes from its Tokyo operations hub. I belive that overflying the NRT hub will happen. The first destination I think this will happen to is PEK-Bejing. A DTW-PEK nonstop flight offers better connections to a majority of the population of the United States (those living in the Eastern and Central Time zones) than connecting in NRT. A SEA-PEK route in partnership with AS would capture the remainder of traffic who would find it not advantageous to connect in DTW.
With the spokes like NRT-PEK removed from the hub, I beleive that NRT could redeploy the slots to add more US to NRT frequencies such as adding new routes like BOS-NRT or LAS-NRT.
The second NRT spoke I would remove is NRT-ICN. I beleive that NW and KE could come to lauch a joint venture and increase nonstop US - South Korea frequencies.
The third NRT spoke would be PVG - Shanghai.
The fourth and fifth NRT spoke would be HKG and CAN - Hong Kong and Guangzhou.

I believe that PUS, BKK and SIN must continue to be hubbed at NRT because of the distance between the US and BKK and SIN and a lack of traffic between PUS and the US that could support double daily A332s from US: 1 each from DTW and SEA. (for this study I have considered GUM and SPN as domestic US destinations but these destinations could be flown n/s from the US mainland.)

[Edited to correct: TPE - Taipei is not served from NRT. Thanks acf573.]

Last edited by cslusarc; Apr 14, 05 at 5:16 pm
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