Originally Posted by
iahphx
I'm not rooting for the ULCCs demise, just observing that they have failing business models. You describe our major airlines as a "cartel." America has 3 huge airlines (DL, UA and AA), and 2 other viable very large airlines (AS and WN). They also face dozens of foreign competitors, and have much less than a 50% share of int'l flights to the US. That's a lot of competition! And the financial results show it: their profit margins are poor compared to other industries. I do think average airfares might rise a little if most of the other unprofitable airlines somehow shut down, but I don't think travellers would be "screwed" if only the more successful airlines survive.
International is a whole different game with lots of subsidized businesses so it has to be its own thing. I'm just talking about domestic flying which is the 5, but could easily be 4 or 3 with the way these carriers are talking. National mobility will take a massive hit as it would be easy for carriers to all pull back on seats and stick to the most profitable routes. The only hope then would be animal spirits return and new LCCs start up again. Meanwhile the economy takes a hit and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of jobs are lost. All because someone felt a war needed to be had at this time