See here for details.
The chances should be the same, but the process is different (see below for codeshares).
Remember that only certain fare codes are available:
PlusPoints can be used on flights operated by All Nippon Airways (ANA) for one-segment, one-cabin upgrades on any multi-cabin international flight operated by ANA and marketed by ANA or United. Upgrades are subject to availability and valid for paid, published fares only. The following ANA fare classes are eligible for PlusPoints upgrades: B, C, D, E, G, J, M, U and Y. PlusPoints can’t be used to upgrade from Economy to Premium Economy on ANA-operated flights. Once your ticket has been issued, requests to upgrade with PlusPoints can be made through
https://www.united.com/sso/en/us/sso...uage=en&POS=us You can make upgrade requests for ANA-operated flights beginning 365 days before departure until 24 hours before departure. If you are traveling on an ANA- or Lufthansa-operated codeshare flight with a United flight number, upgrades may be available and can be requested by calling 1-800-UNITED-1 (1-800-864-8331) within the U.S. and Canada, elsewhere call your local
United Customer Contact Center.