I think your odds of both getting upgraded are quite small. Actually, even one, because you are still behind all the EXP's who have not been upgraded yet.
I think the odds of being able to swap if you are in F are greater than 50/50. There's not that much difference in the quality of seats in F, which is not at all true in Y. My favorite F seats are 1C and 1D (bulkhead aisle) but I'd swap to 5A/F for someone else's convenience. It's just not that big a deal.