If you buy the buy-up I assume you only qualify for *next year* right? Whereas if you fly the extra miles now I think we still get early qualification for this year as well as next year so we would get at least extra eupgrades for use next year. So I think it still makes more sense to look for a flight to qualify rather than spend the $1k even if it's worth the $1k and even if the flight is otherwise a worthless trip.