I do a bit of sports betting, $20 $50 etc here and there and I use a variety of apps, caesars, mgm, betrivers, fanduel draftkings etc. I know that caesars gives tier credits on bets but until recently I completely misunderstood how tier credits were awarded. I thought it was based on caesars profit rather than mine. So now I understand that I earn tier credits at 20% of the profitability of my bets with a cap of 2 tier credits per $ wagered.
Can anyone verify if this is counted for the tier credit bonuses? Seems like it should according to this:
https://caesarsrewards.custhelp.com/...g-tier-credits
The house edge on sports betting is better than slot machines but not as good as most video poker machines.
A standard straight bet of $110 to win $100 has a house edge of around 4.5% and generates 20 tier credits (20% of 100). On average you'll win half your bets which minimizes your variance. To actually minimize your variance make more small bets.
If you routinely bet underdogs lets say 3/2 (say +150 / -180), then the edge is about 4.1% but on that same $110 bet your tier credits per bet is larger (20% of 110*1.5=33). The downside is that you'll win fewer bets so your variance is higher.
Similarly +200/-250 has about a 4.5% edge but gives 40 tier credits on a $100 bet. Again, you're winning fewer bets so the variance is even larger.
To get to the earning cap you need 10/1 odds which would typically come with futures or parlays but the house edge on those is much higher. While I may play around with those I'm not going to try and suggest its worth playing those for tier credits.
Next year I'd like to try and earn diamond just on sports betting (particularly baseball). If I stick to +150 bets of $50 each I'd need to make 1000 bets to make diamond ignoring any tier credit bonuses. The expected loss is running $50,000 in bets at about a 4.5% edge so $2,250. If I could do it with +200 bets it would take 750 bets @ $50 with expected loss of around $1690. There may be ways to reduce the edge/variance. Maybe even just taking the opposite side of each bet on mgm if they have a similar tier credit offer.
Has anyone tried this? Can this be done with mgm as well?