Not that I have ever transited YUL but your question may be answered by the usual of
- whether you have trusted traveller status (it might be possible Nexus might have a very slight edge over GE in an exceptional case of things not going right),
- where you're sitting in the a/c in relation to the disembarkation door, and
- what other flights arrive the same time or just before yours does.
https://www.admtl.com/en/guide/connecting-flights
Is the downside is you have to buy a walk-up ticket to NYC?