I know that some believe that with vaccination the situation will be much better by October and flights will resume a semi-normal schedule. I pray that they are right, but I do not share that optimism.
Even if the vaccine is somewhat effective on the new variants, most Asian countries have not started or are just starting vaccination. Current schedules for Oct/Nov are purely theoretical. These are placeholders and most flights won't materialize. Given your MIQ constraint, I would suggest that you look at what currently flies and plan similar itinerary as they are more likely to operate in the future. The situation might improve, but with a family and a MIQ date constraint, I find it better to be risk averse.
As Often1 mentioned, plan the most direct routing NOT involving a stopover.
Betting on a stopover in Hong Kong is a no-no. Even a stopover in SYD is extremely risky. Remember that AU has a zero case objective, hoping that they will let in some tourists from Europe in six month time without quarantine is a dream.
You have mentioned HKG as a possible transit point. Hong Kong started today even more restrictive measures where any crew coming from elsewhere has to hotel quarantine for 2 weeks. Flights from UK are already banned and BA flies with no pax LHR-HKG but a double crew using the F cabin. The double crew will now be required for any longhaul airline flying to HKG. Only NZ flies HKG-AKL once in a while. If travellers from UK are again accepted, you will need to be on a single ticket BA/NZ to transit in HKG (or CX/NZ NZ codeshares CX but that won't work for avios).
MH is not an option as there currently no flights to AKL.
At the current time, the best one-transit routes are SQ or QR.
Last edited by brunos; Feb 21, 2021 at 6:26 am