It completely hinges around speed of roll out and carrier status post vaccination - the second point is starting to become clearer and looks variable with the different vaccines but should be settled end of 1st quarter 2021.
So if vaccinated and it prevents infection vs prevention of severity then there is no reason travel shouldn’t resume at an individual level post vaccination.
The problem is the government is playing a zero risk game and their presentation of the advice they are receiving is very slanted and they have been very careful to ask for advice or phrase their questions such they get the advice they want....... which isn’t the same as there being true expert consensus. But ultimately if the public want a zero risk game that’s what we will get.
But I cannot help myself in saying the Ireland vs NZ example as presented is superficial. We are in a good place - and that is something to be grateful for but this is super complicated and it has been painted as a simpleargument about “keeping it out” - unfortunately there will be a wider reckoning.