FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Negative covid test when arriving from 5 more countries
Old Sep 26, 2020, 6:29 am
  #51  
KLouis
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Heraklion, Greece
Posts: 7,565
Here are the official numbers as of last midnight:

Greece, # of tests 1,256,436, tests/million popul. 120,686 /// # of cases 16,913, # of deaths 369
Netherl., # of tests 2,240,526, tests/million popul. 130,689 /// # of cases 105,918, # of deaths 6,328

Note similar relative numbers for the number of tests carried out, yet a big disparity in the number of positives and deaths.

Yes, cause of death classification may change from country to country, but this no way leads to differences in the range of ± one order of magnitude for the above values.

As for IFR vs. CFR, I do know the difference (which is why I put the IFR in quotes in my previous answer. Unless a complete serological survey for a very large number of people (including people who got sick at the first phase of the pandemic, as well as asymptomatic ones!) is carried out, there is no way to correctly calculate the IFR, which is why this theoretical metric, at this moment, is not as crucial for some day-to-day decisions. Fransknorge, you "assumed" a specific value for the IFR (currently it is generally assumed to be between 0.5% and more than 1% but less than 1.5%) but, on the other hand, you used actual case numbers (i.e. forgetting asymptomatics) to make a point on the validity of Greek numbers. For me, the bottom line is to leave "discussions" on epidemiology to epidemiologists (I was one, till I retired a few years back) because they may lead to false conclusions (not that epidemiologists are always correct? )
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