Originally Posted by
orbitmic
In international relations, one of the biggest dangers of all is to over-estimate your ability to dictate the terms of the agenda.
Right now, the French Government is fuming because (despite their unconvincing denial) the British Government had agreed that France would be exempt from the quarantine rules before going back on their word.
The French have now confirmed that if/when that measure is implemented by the UK, the French will thus reciprocate, but of course, in the same way that the British Government has put together a list of exemptions based on its own self-interest, the French would be fully entitled to do the same and that list of self-interested exemptions might not be the same. One option that is quite likely being full consideration and which would have the effect of an atomic bomb on the British economy would be not for the French to exempt freight drivers, which, in effect, would lead virtually any freight company to prefer not to deliver goods to the UK until the quarantine is over, and any other form of transport to massively increase their charges. By contrast, whilst that measure would have "a" cost for the French economy, that cost would be relatively minor.
Given that this new and internationally unwelcome British policy comes at the very same time that the Brexit negotiations are, yet again, extremely tense, I would not be altogether surprised if that option (which would symbolically mean: "don't think you can just take any unilateral decision you wish and that we will let you dictate the terms of the debate without reacting.
Interesting.
Fake news and rumors abound, so I could be very wrong. But my understanding is that the French and British had agreed in principle to reciprocate. The EU made it known that it was unacceptable to differentiate between EU+ members unless based on strict health criteria. The French Government being the most pro-EU in the lot has its own problems in determining its own quarantine rules, but made the preliminary announcement that it might not quarantine any EU+ pax. Of course, France is expecting a reciprocal agreement, so the British rule is damaging.Just a big mess in international coordination.
I find it unlikely that the French would throw a tantrum because they feel that Britain reneged on some soft agreement..Many EU+ countries still impose a strict restriction to entry for French nationals. Still France seemed ready to allow their citizens to avoid French quarantine. And the new British quarantine does not discriminate against the French as it applies to anyone.
Whether such unenforceable self-quarantine makes any sense is another issue. It certainly works quite well in smaller places like SIngapore and Hong Kong, but England-wide?
Anyway,
I believe that the announcement effect is what matters and was the motivation. It will deter many UK tourists to go and come back from Holiday in Europe and that seems to be the objective, whether silly or founded..