FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Discussion thread on lockdowns and their effectiveness
Old May 8, 2020, 12:00 pm
  #13  
Smiley90
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
Start with this Google search: what are the negative effects of unemployment on health
Then compare the depth and duration of this, multiplied by the number of people involved in unemployment (now 40 million in US) and compare to the 900,000+ cases where it lasts 2-3 weeks, recovery and no hospitalization.
Yes there are 70k deaths at an average lost life expectancy of almost 10 years each, but that number excludes the morbidity of living with the preexisting conditions, so could be more like 8 years. Still the 900,000 needs to be factored in with the 70,000.

2,500 teens age 16-19 die in MVA's yearly which is 75,000 over 30 years. We accept that as a society and don't blink and eyelash. One large scale pandemic over 30 years and we are at the same threshold at this point in time. CV-19 deaths will rise, but the next wave will have already known it is out there and how to mitigate it to some degree. Yet the collateral damage of job loss and lost business value does not happen with the teen drivers. That is at zero, not 40 million x 6-60 months.
It is hard outcomes to compare and I am not saying it is a perfect comparison, but it is one way we as a society value a life with 60 years left vs a life with 8-10 years left), nor am I diminishing the effects of the virus, but the point is that there is a balance here and taking the derivative of the numbers now needs to help steer us slightly until we have our next set of numbers.
The problem is that you're comparing C19 cases WITH lockdown to jobs lost. The actual comparison would be C19 cases WITHOUT lockdown to jobs lost, since those are the two alternatives.

Or lives lost, if you want - let's assume 0.5% mortality of 300 million Americans - that's 20 million temporary jobs lost vs. 1.5 million deaths. Are you okay temporarily sacrificing ~13 jobs per live saved? I'd argue yes, you might argue no - either way, neither of this is fact based reporting but speculation and should really be moved to another thread.
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