FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Discussion thread on lockdowns and their effectiveness
Old May 8, 2020, 10:44 am
  #3  
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Originally Posted by Smiley90
Jobs can come back after you re-open the economy, they're temporarily lost. The dead won't come back.
That is not the point and you know it. Anyone who uses the term "reopen the economy" has a very rudimentary view of the multiple layers of variables in play here, so I will try once and let it all go.

A CV-19 viral infection is largely temporary. For 99% or higher. But it lasts 2-3 weeks and it's over. That is the norm. The outliers get all the attention.
A job loss lasts longer, (April numbers) negatively impacts 300 people for every one death, and negatively impacts people across all demographics, not just older with preexisting morbidity. The negative impacts of poverty and job loss on health and society are well-described. Yet for some reason, forgotten. Don't forget the 900,000 cases where a recovered patient is being traded for over a year of job loss.

it is about taking the derivatives to know the impact of two variables at any one moment in time.

Wonder if the dead would want us grieving their loss by creating even more hardship on 20 million (now closer to 40 million since the job numbers lag) who never got the virus.

Would you say that extending to an 8th week of mandatory stay-at-home orders nationwide has a greater interval benefit than the 8th week of exponential unemployment (many for 8 weeks, and for 20 million they have been added in the last two weeks since the jobs report) growth does damage?
Does it have that benefit for a county with 40,000 people, 65 cases and no deaths which peaked 2 weeks ago and never came close to overloading its healthcare resources? They not allowed to earn a living safely and under strict safety orders because prisons and meat packing plants are spiking numbers nationwide? Yet this little county has no say even though they have done everything right all along and still lost thousands of jobs and dozens of businesses waiting around for others to get their act together?

Do you at least understand that "reopen the economy" needs to be retired. It means different things to different communities and different industries.
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