Originally Posted by
doctoravios
I only wish this were true. The suppression efforts in London are laughable. Thousands of people crammed into packed tube trains on a daily basis. Hundreds of people mauling supermarkets. I think it is unwise of the Imperial team to make these assumptions about the efficacy of our public health approach. And to make such a statement after we are only a few days into the lockdown when there is potentially a huge lag in new cases yet to come is brave, at best.
Having said all of that, I truly hope they are right and we will see far fewer deaths than anticipated (and I do think this is feasible, but not a certainty).
All the charts of the Imperial College report are based on 75% compliance, they need to rerun the models with 20% compliance...