FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Citi AA churn - impact on Amex, BoA, Chase et.al. application strategy?
Old Feb 3, 2020, 1:46 pm
  #143  
jsl_313
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 90
Originally Posted by Adelphos
I present this as an option: the Amex Delta Starter pack (for those without any of these cards and with three Amex credit card slots)

Delta Gold (70,000 mile sign up bonus)
Delta Platinum (100,000 mile sign up bonus)
Delta Reserve (100,000 mile sign up bonus, 20,000 mile MQM sign up bonus)

Apply now
Spend $10,000 on Delta Gold in 2020 (get sign up bonus, miles, plus $100 delta credit)
Spend $50,000 on Delta Platinum in 2020 (get sign up bonus, miles, plus 20,000 MQM)
Spend $60,000 on Delta Reserve in 2020 (get sign up bonus, miles plus 30,000 MQM)
Fly 5,000 miles on Delta in 2020 (one NYC to LAX transcon in coach will do) in 2020
Renew all three cards in 2021 for one extra year (to get remaining sign up bonuses and companion passes)

Get:
At least 390,000 Delta miles (this assumes no bonus category spend) - value of $4,290 at 1.1 cents per mile
$100 Delta Flight Credit - value of $100
Delta Platinum Status through January 2022 - N/A
One domestic coach companion ticket - value of $250
One domestic first class companion ticket - value of $500
Delta SkyClub and Centurion Lounge Access - value of $500
Total value: $5,640 (with no value ascribed to Platinum status, which many value in the thousands)

Cost
Delta Gold Fees ($100)
Delta Platinum Fees ($250 + $250)
Delta Reserve Fees ($550 + $550)
Opportunity Cost of $120,000 of spend at 2% ($2,400)
Total Cost: $4,100

I think you're grossly undervaluing the opportunity cost by just assuming 2% at numbers that large. If someone is signing up for 3 Delta cards, I'd assume that they're in this game deep enough that they would sign up for several other cards in the same year. With an extra 110k of organic or manufactured spend, you could potentially get tens of thousands of dollars of value from SUBs. Plus, paying the AF to receive the extra miles at renewal is mediocre value at best (I wouldn't pay $99 for 10k skymiles). We could debate the value of status, but I'd argue it's not anywhere close to the opportunity cost of several SUBs.

If we're recommending 3 cards, I'd say get the personal gold, business gold, and business platinum, ending up with 220k miles for 7k spend and $250 in AFs.

Get:
At least 227,000 Delta Miles (this assumes no bonus category spend) - value of $2,497 at 1.1 cents per mile

Cost:
Delta Platinum Fees ($250)

Much better value for your time and money than trying to maximize every benefit by spending an extra $110,000 on Delta cards, IMO.
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