Originally Posted by
Dr. HFH
Anything's possible, but I doubt that a U.S. attack against Iran would have widespread consequences outside the immediate conflict area for commercial air travel.
Whose number is the 40%?
I understand that, but most flights from DOH to destinations to the east fly directly through the straights of Hormuz and sometimes over southern Iran as to avoid UAE airspace.
I have a few friends and colleagues who formerly worked in natsec positions in the US govt, as well as folks who work in think tanks such as the council on foreign relations, brookings, etc. and a few of them have said with this latest incident and Mr. Trump’s tendency to always “punch back,” the likelihood of conflict seems to be around 30-40% to err with caution. Hopefully these numbers are wrong and things will de-escalate.