Remember my flight GVA - FRA - IAD last year: first leg was delayed, but we still had 1h in FRA since also the last leg was delayed (all weather related). Still, my luggage didn't make the connection. But at least they put it on the UA flight a couple of hours later, and I was called out by name at the IAD luggage belt in order to inform me. So all fine - however I agree that the SMS you receive are really a joke: it is hard to identify what the text really means and when your luggage will ultimately arrive. My luggage finally came at around 11pm local time on the same day...