Originally Posted by
scubadu
Yea... you know many keep saying that (usually ones that are angry/unhappy) and literally have been saying some version of these words for as long as I've been on FT. The sky is always falling and there is always a percieved "day of reckoning" coming for the major carriers.
And yet... moving forward in time, the planes of all the big three continue to be packed to the gills and by all indications the elite ranks continue to swell (almost to bursting capacity). These carriers are generally somewhat profitable year in and year out, where previously they were always on the verge of or actually in bankruptcy.
And FTer's have been swearing for years they were going to "quit this game" and no longer chase status or they are moving their business to another carrier.
And yet... the UA, AA, and DL forums on FT seem to be as active and growing in number of users and posts as they ever have been.
Maybe a day of reckoning for these carriers will come, I certainly don't know, but to date, there is exactly zero real evidence (complaints on FT are not "real" evidence) that day is any nearer than it was when I joined FT many, many years ago.
Regards
I don't think anyone is "quitting the game" or they wouldn't be here. Nor - in most cases - are people going to boycott UA. Rather what is being communicated is that some elites (myself included) who previously went out of our way to direct travel spend to UA because of the MP program - both for the elite perks and the miles. With the recent changes in MP (as well as the accumulation of prior takeaways), many of us have concluded that we will reconsider this practice and may shift business to the competition.
No one can predict the financial effects for UA of these individual decisions. However we do know that UA publicly admitted that the disastrous rollout of Basic Economy cost the company at least $100 million. Make no mistake - when elites discover that they have to use 2x-4x more miles for the same family vacation trips they booked in the past they will not be happy. And despite industry consolidation there are many options at most UA hubs or co-terminals (excepting perhaps IAH) so few are locked in to UA. Also I expect that spend on Chase UA cards will drop to zero, as people discover they can do better with 2% cash back cards or simply transferrable points (chase, amex, etc)
For me, and I suspect many elites, the relative ease of use and value received from UA miles was a significant factor in my travel decisions. No longer.