Originally Posted by
bigwings8
In general, when looking at fare classes is the following generally correct? (e.g. for international Econ -> Biz or Biz direct booking).
Z >= ZN >= P >= PN >> PZ >> (generally much grater) IN >= I (Has anyone ever seen this not hold up, in more than a trivial I >= IN case?)
I have seen a lot more PZ = IN > I recently, but you general picture is correct.
Originally Posted by
bigwings8
1) I want to confirm that it's generally (always?) easier to book an econ ticket with $$ and then upgrade to biz with miles than it is to book directly into I / IN?
It really depends on what you mean by easier. If you mean "strictly greater chance of flying in Business on a single flight" then yes, a miles+cash upgrade is "easier". However, compared to a Business award:
(a) Unless you wait for PZ space at booking, you will lock yourself into a particular flight and may be forced to fly in Economy; if you book a Business award you won't have the issue (unless you book Economy and waitlist)
(b) You can route Business awards overwater on partner metal; you usually can't do this with an MUA except for exorbitant rates
(c) Even at 2 cpm, buying Economy and using an MUA is usually substantially more expensive than booking a Business award; for US to Europe you're looking at either 40k miles (the balance) or $550
plus an Economy fare. A $250 h/r/t fare is breakeven at the relatively rich valuation of 2 cpm. If your Economy ticket is at W or S rates, you're paying far more for miles+cash.
Originally Posted by
bigwings8
2) Confirming that high PN close to a flight is a good indication that PZ may open up later? (But on the other hand, high PZ is not necessarily an indication that IN will open up).
I don't think PN -> PZ is any stronger or weaker an indication of PZ -> IN. Both are indicators, but neither mean a strong likelihood of the next class opening up. GS upgrades are at least an order of magnitude easier to clear for this reason.
Originally Posted by
bigwings8
3) In general, if you're on a waitlisted saver biz (IN), are you more or less likely than a waitlisted PZ to get the seat?
Substantially less likely. I tend to agree with
jsloan that waitlisted IN segments, when handled correctly by the computer, list you
in pari passu with the PZ waitlists - that is, mixed in by status and underlying fare. We still have insufficient data to prove this though. Before the gate, you are going to be behind both PZ waitlists and (usually) CPUs as well.