FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - advice needed for downgraded first class passenger
Old Mar 15, 2019, 3:52 am
  #31  
brunos
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
Absolutely, they have to have some sort of policy for this but targeting someone apparently without a seat (I suspect they actually did have the auto-seat) who was late to check-in - so perhaps a no-show anyway - seems reasonable. I don't see any other suggestions upthread.

And just to put this in context, I imagine the bulk of agents in the First Wing have never downgraded a First passenger. At T5 they sometimes go weeks between events like this, I suspect the cases that appear here are a magnified proportion, it is quite rare. Though they do overbook by 1 in the earlier stages of the 355 day booking window, by the time you get within a couple of weeks of departure that overbook is removed, so it only basically happens when people reserve long in advance and no-one changes at the last moment. Formula 1 Grand Prix events were one trigger that used to cause this, though I gather the algorithm has now been fixed for that (and taken out some Avios availability with it!). You are, I would guess, 20 times more likely to be upgraded to First than downgraded.
Your post makes, as usual, a lot of common sense. Except the 20 to 1. I have no idea f the number but I would venture as wildly 10000/1 and that would mostly be because of equipment change and broken seat.

It would be interesting to know the exact process.
You are quite right that most F overbook typically happen long before the flight. But when you book F, you can select a seat or one is automatically assigned (typically in last row).
I wonder what is the exact process before OLCI. My guess (only a guess) is that each pax is assigned (or select) a seat until 14 pax have booked. Any overbooked pax will get some message like "seat on request". I wonder when they decide to kick a pax who has not yet checked in to give that seat to the "overbooked" pax.
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