Originally Posted by
abligh
My most common route is leaving LHR lunchtime-ish on a 747-400 to JFK on a Monday, and returning on the Friday evening on a 747-400. Excess nerdery often shows there is F availability (and I've often bought AUPs) so I doubt it's full F. It may be simply that WTP is more often oversold than J, or that WT is more often oversold than J (resulting in WT->WTP upgrades and thus knock on WTP->J upgrades).
WTP is going to be oversold on that route, yes, particularly on the Super J aircraft, where WTP is only 30 seats, but because CW is so big on SuperJ there shouldn't be much need to push people into First. I do get upgrades into First on that route, but essentially the aircraft has to be chockerblock for it to happen. The Monday service probably isn't going to fall into that category, depending on the Friday one you should have at least some chance there I would have thought, but it's not so much about whether First is available, what is much more important is the total number of passengers flying. So you need to think aircraft wide. BA love selling WTP, it's their big cash cow, so don't look at the W bucket at all, nor E, maybe T. They sell WTP on the basis that some / many passengers will have to go forward.