Originally Posted by QRC3288

This isn't totally correct, unfortunately. It's less than that.

Just to be clear, the routes I've highlighted in your post do not have guaranteed long-haul J. (there are a few others you're missing too, like daily PEK, occasionally CGK, etc.) Allow me to explain. Yes, they are loaded in the schedule. Yes, the schedule usually holds. Yes, they might have longhaul product now and recently and into the future on the schedule. But what happens is seasonally, things change, and all of a sudden flights that had guaranteed J do not anymore. 3-6 months yes there is some predictability, although I caution even if things look regular, even if the schedule is loaded, the only thing you can 100% guarantee is CX548/549. Routes/flight numbers people thought were guaranteed in the past (NRT, ICN, PEK, SGN, KIX, TPE, NRT, PEK, CGK, BKK, SIN, there are probably more) suddenly aren't, or then they are again. Especially for the award bookers on here, which seem to be a lot of people and booking farther out in the schedule, you cannot guarantee any of the flight numbers you said will have long haul except for CX548/CX549.

The only safe thing you can hang your hat on, if you're booking now or making assumptions about future flights, into future scheduling periods is that CX548/CX549 have long-haul product. And the reason for this is simple: CX is committed to offering at least once daily F class to Tokyo, and all F class planes have long-haul J. The F class airport used to be NRT a long time ago, but once HND slots opened up the "guaranteed" airport for F class has been HND. Everything else you cannot hang your hat, unfortunately. Sadly, HND even used to two have two daily F flights but that has since been reduced to just one.

Many of the peopls on here are very familiar with Cx. It's true, you can make very smart bets on which planes will have longhaul J and keep regional F. (to the Osaka flight, that has had very high variance in the past, fyi. Years ago it had F, then it had regional J, then long-haul J, back to regional J, and now long-haul J again). But I'm saying overall, nothing is truly guaranteed except CX548/549.

Ultimately it is demand for cash F class that guarantees a route having long-haul J, nothing more. And only Tokyo has demanded this continuously without fail for years/decade. I have indeed heard PEK and sometimes PVG have solid demand for cash F fares, but the "problem" is KA has an F class too, and CX in a somewhat shady move can sell KA "F" (8 seats, long-haul J on CX) at the same price. And then use more dense CX birds if they have extra J and Y demand. BUt those are special cases because they are dual KA/CX destinations. Generally speaking continuous F O&D cash demand = long-haul J guarantee regionally. Unfortunately for a decade or longer, the only city to satisfy this continuously is Tokyo.