Originally Posted by platbrownguy

Take the earlier inbound. Sure, odds are they'd let you standby (flat tire/late arrival standby) for the other flights but you'd be giving up a flat bed for a regular domestic chair... or perhaps even economy (the seats up front could be sold out on the other flights). As noted, the AC agents will be your best allies at HNL if you need rerouting.

Also I assume you're coming in on an intra-islands flight and not another oneworld flight... you're a little better off if it's a oneworld connection but not much -- 40min is tight, HNL isn't tiny, and losing a paid 777 J seat isn't worth risking imo.